Do Not Miss The Next Opportunity

For over a decade Trin Cafe has routinely shared charts indicating support and resistance levels like many other trading blogs and websites. The "art of speculation" is a niche skill that is far from an exact science. For the technical analysis, making a decision to risk real money based primarily on what a chart appears to indicate is a love hate relationship at best.

The universe of long and short stocks that compose my portfolio are from the S&P 500, also referred to as a ES futures contract in the chart above. The diversity in stock selection increases the chances of riding the coat tails of a few winners, and minimizing the down side risk of the losing positions. The portfolio is created in Interactive Broker's portfolio builder, the strategy is based on research and rankings from reputable research analyst and fundamentals data. Strategy has been back-tested against the last 8 years of historical performance. The motivation for using an automated strategy was to avoid the grind of technical analysis.

So, the love hate relationship continues, the ES/S&P 500 is near previous highs not seen since late February. The urge to hop into the market to not miss making new highs (FOMO) will be strong for a lot of traders. The argument can be made that the time to be long this market has already sailed. 3400 is the new area of resistance that needs to be tested before finding a reason to risk capital. Speculation and opinions are synonymous, they are both insignificant unless you have skin in the game such as money or reputation. For the retail trader, reputation only goes so far.

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