In an unusual moment, the stock market’s ability to sniff out the future is severely impaired

Even with all the political capital, computing power, and human intelligence, the future is still hard to predict.



  • Investors are desperate for more data to quantify the coronavirus impact on the economy and earnings, and then map the duration of a possible recovery ahead.
  • Decline in the volatility index shows the market has moved on from outright shock to grinding resignation that things are bad and will be so for a while.
  • The credit market, reflecting macro conditions and liquidity, will have plenty to say about whether such an equity floor can hold and any rallies get traction.
  • We are in an unusual moment where the market’s vaunted ability to “sniff out” the economic path a few months out — always overstated, perhaps — is particularly impaired.
See CNBC article here


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