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Showing posts from April, 2020

SPY SPECULATION 4/27/20

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If SPY is able to hold above 285 this week, I would be surprised. I speculate that SPY will test support and previous lows in the area of 275-270.
R 287 S 272
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Performance 4/23/20

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Friday I have no plans of opening a screen, hence the early performance post. To say again that this week has been interesting has grown old. Ending the week in the green is great, however I am not fooling myself. Next week the market could be down 10% or more erasing this week's gains. Retail trading needs to be a marathon for a chance at longterm success.

7 Day + 20.10%
Change + $312.97

MTD + 27.93% 

Change + $564.14

YTD + 112.43%
Change + $1,519.21

Beginning Value $349.78
Ending Value + $1,868.99

A Simple Option Trading Strategy? (USO MAY 29'20 3.5 Put)

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Naked Sold USO MAY 29'20 3.5 Put. Meaning, if USO is below $3.5, I am forced to own USO underline at whatever the price happens to be after the May 29th expiration date. The MAX Return of $114 is the premium I receive for taking the risk of having to own USO, the projected MAX loss of $236 happens to be the current cost of USO $2.36. However poorly USO performs in the next few weeks, I don't mind owning USO considering I have received $114 (premium) for my effort of taking on the risk. 

Weekly Speculation

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I didn't carve out the time to post my speculation for the week, between staying at home with kids and yard work, speculation took a back seat on Monday.

Last Monday I posted about SPY bullish trend line


The short term bullish trajectory is not sustainable, a retracement is to be expected, 240 support, if not we may be testing some new lows.

My inner bear thinks new lows are likely, however, we can only trade what we see, not what we think or hope may happen. For the short term, SPY is still bullish.

Performance 4/21/20

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In the past few weeks, I have been experimenting with different ways of showing my account performance. The idea is to give an honest view of managing a small trading account. Once a month I deposit $150 into my account, the thought process I have each month is not to lose more than $150 a month, it has forced me to be a lot more judicious with how often and the types of trades I make. I am purposely using a small trading account, if a trader can not responsibly manage a small account, using more capital will not change poor performance results.

7 Day - 2.10%
Change - 35.88

MTD + 14.34% 
Change + $365.66

YTD + 90.79%
Change + $1,328.86

Beginning Value $349.78
Ending Value $1,678.64
Change + $1,328.86

FIT And AMC Option Trades

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I have been waiting for my capital to increase before adding any additional risk/hedge.


FIT has been hammered, the cost of buying a call was so cheap ($.07), I was not worried about the downside risk.

Bought FIT MAY 01 '20 7 Call @ .07position down -42%/ -$2.79


Another bullish trade, I sold a naked AMC option with a $3 strike for a credit of $1.35. If AMC is put to me, I do not mind owning AMC as part of my portfolio.

Sold AMC MAY 15 '20 3 Put @ 1.35, underline currently $2.37 position up +18%/+$24.70





All of the World's Money...

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Because of COVID-19,  I have lost track of time, I wake up and I am not sure of what day of the week it is, maybe Tuesday, it could be Wednesday? My sheltering in place has consisted of homeschooling a five-year-old and a two-year-old. My retreat from homeschooling has consisted of a lot of Youtube, Netflix, and deep-diving into economic theories about past and current market systems.  I have grown more even more fascinated with the concept of money after the most recent stimulus package of 2T+.

I have posted the below infographic before, in light of stimulus checks going out to American households, this post feels timely.

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

SPY April 13th 2020: Is This Trend Line Real Revisited

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Last Monday, April 6th I posted about SPY bullish  trendline titled "Is This Trend Line Real?" Today the SPY is down -5.42, depending on your chart platform of choice, technical analysis may read very differently when factoring in time frames, chart style, and size.








John Maynard Keynes

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John Maynard Keynes is best known for Keynes's theory, the belief that the government should be the generating force that increases demand to boost growth. Keynesians believe consumer demand is the primary driving force in an economy. As a result, the theory supports expansionary fiscal policies. Like his theories or not, you have to be able to respect a speculator who has real experience with trading success and failure and success again. 
Keynes is also known for being quoted as saying “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” In these uncertain times, risking capital is more necessary if you want to your trading account or portfolio to benefit from the market rebound. I am definitely not advocating for timing the market, I am only pointing out the fact that global markets have recovered from pandemics, a recession, depressions, bubbles, and Great Wars. 
The inner prepper in me thinks about preparing my family in a post-apocalyptic world where I have to…

Is This Trend Line Real?

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In an unusual moment, the stock market’s ability to sniff out the future is severely impaired

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Even with all the political capital, computing power, and human intelligence, the future is still hard to predict.


PUBLISHED MON, APR 6 20207:09 AM EDT
Michael Santoli@MICHAELSANTOLI


KEY POINTS

Investors are desperate for more data to quantify the coronavirus impact on the economy and earnings, and then map the duration of a possible recovery ahead.Decline in the volatility index shows the market has moved on from outright shock to grinding resignation that things are bad and will be so for a while. The credit market, reflecting macro conditions and liquidity, will have plenty to say about whether such an equity floor can hold and any rallies get traction. We are in an unusual moment where the market’s vaunted ability to “sniff out” the economic path a few months out — always overstated, perhaps — is particularly impaired. See CNBC article here


Portfolio Update

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Not sure why Yahoo Finance is padding my brokerage account performance? 
I accurately edited performance. See Portfolio Performance 4/3/20

WHO: Countries that rush to lift restrictions risk ‘severe and prolonged’ damage to economy

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A question or thought I have been pondering for weeks now, will governments, the U.S in particular compound the infection and death rate by not advising or ordering states to self-quarantine for a long enough time?

Read CNBC article

SpeculationCoronavirus cases continue to multiply through the spring and summer here in the U.S.S&P 500 continues volatile swings and find new lows, both bears and bulls get hurtThe U.S. Government orders a national quartine sometime in 2020President Trump wants to delay elections in November do to Coronavirus

It's All About The Oil Stupid!

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COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*† Total cases: 213,144Total deaths: 4,513Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands) CDC.gov
Coronavirus cases surpass 1,000,000 (CNBC article). A speculator such as myself would think that would be horrible news for the economy and markets?


(Bloomberg) -- Oil soared after U.S. President Donald Trump said Saudi Arabia and Russia would make major output cuts, though uncertainty swirled over the volume of curbs and whether reductions would be made at all. While Trump tweeted that cuts of 10 million to 15 million barrels were possible, he didn’t specify if that reduction would be per day. He also said he spoke to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman about the market. His comments immediately triggered skepticism, even within the U.S. government. One person familiar with the administration’s discussions with the Saudis said there was widespread internal confus…

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Evaluating Investment Performance


To assess how well your investments are doing, you'll need to consider several different ways of measuring performance. The measures you choose will depend on the information you're looking for and the types of investments you own. Learn more.



Asset Allocation


Asset allocation is a useful tool to manage systematic risk because different categories of investments respond to changing economic and political conditions in different ways. Learn more.



Diversifying Your Portfolio


When you diversify, you aim to manage your risk by spreading out your investments. You can diversify both within and among different asset classes. Learn more.



Rebalancing Your Portfolio


As market performance alters the values of your asset classes, you may find that your asset allocation no longer provides the balance of growth and return that you want. In that case, you may want to consider rebalancing your portfolio. Learn more.




Source: FINRA.org