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SPY Watch 8/19/19


Monday 8/19/19
         The S&P 500 rose 1.2% on Monday in a broad-based advance that extended its rebound rally to a third day. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.0%), and Russell 2000 (+1.0%) also advanced at least 1.0%. —Monday's session was much like Friday's in that the market quickly jumped out to a big lead following another round of positive headlines. More reports surfaced about stimulus plans in China and Germany, which helped kindle some curiosity about the Fed's annual Jackson Hole Summit on Thursday and Friday. In addition, the U.S. granted Huawei another 90 days to continue buying supplies from U.S. companies.—None of the news, however, really provided the market anything "new" or surprising. Perhaps the calm that flowed from the absence of negative news and economic data helped the market reset from a perceived short-term oversold condition.—All 11 S&P 500 sectors posted decent gains on Monday. Seven sectors rose at least 1.0%, including a 2.1% gain in the energy sector amid higher oil prices ($56.00/bbl, +$1.11, +2.0%). Noticeable gains in the mega-cap stocks provided strong support for the information technology (+1.6%), communication services (+1.4%), and consumer discretionary (+1.3%) sectors. —Apple (AAPL 210.35, +3.85, +1.9%) was one of those mega-cap outperformers following a meeting between Apple CEO Tim Cook and President Trump over the weekend. President Trump said Mr. Cook presented a "compelling argument" for how tariffs would make it harder for Apple to compete against foreign competitors. Apple shares rose nearly 2%.—Estee Lauder (EL 201.65, +22.43) was another standout, rising 12.5% after the company beat top and bottom-line estimates and provided upbeat guidance for the remainder of its fiscal year. —The U.S. Treasuries pulled back from a lengthy advance amid the positive disposition inequities. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield increased six basis points each to 1.53% and 1.60%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.3% to 98.38. —Investors did not receive any notable economic data on Monday and will not receive any until Wednesday. — —Copyright (C) 2019   

The area between 295 and 280 is where decisions are being made rather the SPY will be bearish or bullish. It's an area of congestion and as the saying goes, anything can happen; as scary as it may seem, the long position appears to be the best position to be in, despite last week's selloff. If 280 is ever tested again, panic would quickly lead to another selloff.

In the FINVIZ chart, it is easy to see that the SPY is still in a bullish pattern (ascending triangle).
Full disclosure, I am personally still sitting on the sidelines, I will not claim to have been right without having evidence that I had real capital at risk.

Have a great week of trading!
- Trin