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Dumb Money Is Bearish This Summer!


It's not a secret that I'm bearish on this aging bull market, we all know that trying to time a market correction is a futile attempt, smart money would just get long the market until the music stops playing. My dumb money [disposable day trading capital] wants to participate in a market selloff that has not yet occurred.

I woke up at 4 a.m. wondering why I have such a bearish bias despite witnessing a bull market, then I realized my biased began when I was introduced to trading way back in '02. The dot-com bubble was still fresh in my memory, I traded very well through the 2007 subprime/credit swap fiasco, and I was in early on the "great recession" recovery in 2009. This is not the usual daily rant here on TRIN Café, I'm hinting at the few times a year or a decade that can make the difference in long-term trading success or bottom-feeding for a few points/ticks at a time.

The almost should've, could've, would've is littered throughout this blog, I'm determined to be on board when this bull market turns the corner. With that said, I'm risking a total of $416.54 for the summer in the below option positions. The only clear bearish chart is XLE [Enrgy], the other two charts XLK [Tech] and XLF [Financial] are well into bullish territory, I admit I am way out ahead of any bearish signals.



Summer Option Portfolio



Sep 15 '17 55 Put @ 1.28 | as of 6/21/17 XLK 55.64

Sep 29 '17 64 Put @ 2.43 | as of 6/21/17 XLE 64.75

Sep 29 '17 24 Put @ .68 | as of 6/21/17 XLF 24.20





Comments

  1. hey man, anytime is as good as any to anticipate a downward move. if you've got your risk bearings all set up then it's all up to the market to do what it's going to do.

    i am genuinely interested in learning to trade options as I share your sentiment and would like to purchase some out of the money leaps. can't hurt, right?

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  2. My trading is based on a ten year plan, day trading is great for when markets are trending in a retail trader friendly manner. Current markets have not been so friendly, weeks of choppy price range is a grind to day trade.

    My goal is to be ready to day trade well when market is ready to selloff, and to have capital on hand to pick up the pieces in the next recovery by managing an options portfolio.

    Options are a break from being anchored to the desk, in my case, technical analysis is moved from a 5min chart on to a daily chart.

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  3. Just a followup on this post, I closed my summer bearish positions for a loss... timing was off.

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