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9/6/18

Whale Hunting

A three day market slide is a good day for my current positions. 

UNRLD $189



EWZ has to be watched closely, might close it Friday if it continues bleeding profit.

SPY is starting to work well, my largest position I will jave to keep on a tight leash, I have seen the market rally against me for the past two years.

UVXY, it was at a historic low when I bought it. A expiration of March is a lot of time for volatility to come back into the spotlight.


I'm holding expiration dates in November December and March anticipating to catch the market fall. You guys know I have been like Captain Ahab looking for my white whale since 2016.




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8/23/18

Trump Predicts Market Crash...

To be completely honest, I expected a market crash almost two years ago. 


POSITIONS
EWZ DEC21'18 32 PUT @ 2.84
Sorry Brazil, but I am short on their economy.


UVXY MAR15'19 8 CALL @ 2.79
Looking for volatility to spike sometime this year.

RESULT
?


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8/10/18

When Is Enough Enough? Update

It's been a long time since I posted, I have been on a hiatus from blogging here on Trin Cafe.
The Summer break has given me a lot of time for some humble self-reflection on the past 18 months as a "full-time trader". I won't bore you with the details, I will just say that you will learn a lot about yourself after losing the cost of a small house in less than 2 years in this opportunity I have called trading for a living. When years of preparing and saving for the trading account does not pan out as once hoped, what is a trader to do?

Option A: Call it quits.

Option B: Seek small wins and smaller losses.

Option C: I am still searching for an option "C", I am not sure there are any other options. For now, I am sticking with option B.

I am blessed to have a passive income that allows me to sit on my hands and ass long enough to risk it in these financial markets. For better or worse, the Pandora's box has been opened, the genie is out of the bottle, the toothpaste is out of the tube... I am a trader... FYI, (I hate the casino).
I began trading in 2002, I have traded through the "great recession", I was trading real money in a live account during the flash crash of 2010 and I am still here (dumb ass) maybe?

I am definitely foolish enough to think that I may get it right someday just long enough to where I can manage a decent size account again. Is that someday coming in 2018?

Stay tuned!




POSITION

SPY SEP 283 PUT @ 4.17

RESULT

Closed @ 4.70 for $51 profit.



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6/21/18

A Broken Clock...

Long August Put 24,700 STRIKE

If your bearish long enough and can stay capitalize, it will pay off someday?

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5/29/18

May 28th 2018

I cut my losses on previous AAPL options positions. The Bull Put on AAPL 185/175.5 PUT Option expires June 8th, it still may be profitable, the break-even was AAPL @ 183 by Jun 8th expiration.
I'd rather close my long position and prepare my portfolio for a potential negative downturn. I've been bearish for damn near two years, looking at the Geopolitical landmines coming up with the Russian investigation along with Euro stress from Italian political turmoil has me cautious to the upside. We have three choices as traders, go long, go short, or do nothing and sit on the sidelines.
For the knowledgeable options traders out there, yes there are strategies that can make money options trading in a low volatility market. I believe betting against high volatility is a recipe for disaster in the long term.

Portfolio
YM September PUT 24600 Strike
FXE September PUT 110 Strike
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5/21/18

Options Trading With Apple (AAPL)

No trades today. In my 16 years of trading, I have primarily day traded 60-70% of the time, the other trading I was doing  attempting was in options. My understanding of options is better than average, with that said, I know I am not sophisticated (smart) enough to implement too many complexed option strategies at one time.

See below for some of the various option strategies. 
Option Strategies
Options I have baking in the oven.

Max credit by Jun 8th exp. $244
Looking for AAPL 185 Call to go higher this summer

Today my P&L was positive $152, or I could say I was visiting "Profit Island", a phrase a shamelessly stole from Rhiese over on his blog Trading & Stuff.  The trader I want to be is the kind that trades 70% options and 30% day trading.

Options give a trader the ability to lock in the profit as well as the risk. At the end of the day, we are all trading because we believe we can identify and minimize our downside risk. Currently, my winning day trades gives my account that quick injection of P&L that makes trading feel worthwhile. However, with every winning trade, I have been prone to overtrading digging myself a deeper hole to climb out of.

YM 5min 
As I mentioned, I didn't daytrade today knowing I have capital tied up in option positions. The YM was up more than 250 points, I'm happy to say that I had zero FOMO. As I reviewed this chart, my trading style/technique/method would have had me trading in chop, possibly dangerously overtrading?

Hope we all end the week, month, year on "Profit Island"!
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5/4/18

Managing A Winning Trade Is As Good As It Gets

As I type this post, I feel fortunate to be able to just sit back and manage another winning trade. I am experimenting with how I will continue blogging here at Trin Café. As many of you know, the time and motivation it takes to post and the mental gymnastics required to keep the psychological aspect of trading in check is a daily grind. Posting on Trin Café has served as a therapeutic and creative space for me to share my thoughts on trading and as I said before, I appreciate the interaction with other retail traders which are a rare breed.

Good read: Jesse Livermore on Emotional Control By  in Trading Performance and Psychology
"A trader can never become complacent. Livermore was always alert, ready, prepared to separate himself from the popular thinking of the moment, the group thinking that usually always drives the market, and to go in the opposite direction. Livermore believed in cycles. There is a time when things are good and a time when things turn bad. It is true in this life for all of us, and it is true in the stock market. The good times are coming and so are the bad times—the question for a successful trader is not will they come…it is when will they come?"

I'm thinking of putting more detail and effort into my charts and less time into actual blogging, I might be able to articulate what I am thinking while I stair at candlesticks? Chart porn is really a thing check it out.

YM 1 min Chart, letting a winner run while locking in a profit.

5/4/18


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5/3/18

Getting Cocky 5/3/18

https://unsplash.com/@clark1

Let me paint the picture for you, I put a trade on within 5 minutes of turning on my computer. As I was getting out of the shower I heard on the radio that the DJIA was down 100+ points. Did I mention my wife and my toddler and I were about to leave the house this morning? The YM was hovering around a support area, within 5 minutes price dropped below support and I quickly executed YM short @ 23679. My entry was automated to enter a target @ 23679 which happen to be the next area of support and a stop @ 23730. I anticipated being stopped out for a loss and then the market would sell off without me.

So what's so cocky about that you ask? Now it's time to go take my kid to daycare and my wife to the
hospital who's been having baby contractions all night. With my trade working, I felt confident my(big) stop order was in place so my risk is baked into this trade. So, after dropping my kid off,
and checking my wife into the hospital, I had a chance to check in on my trade from my phone

(in the hospital by my wife's side) to my surprise and delight, the trade worked well for a 100 point $500 profit. As I typed this, I was in the hospital with my wife not monitoring the market action, the last time I checked, the market was down 200+ points, I managed to capture 100 points. And yes, I was done trading for the day.

Big wins are hard to hold on to when discretionary trading, often too often times the ego and subconscious will increase the risk soon after a win and ruin previous profits. Being right and making quick money triggers a chemical reaction of dopamine that can be addictive. It takes a lot of experience and losing trades to understand how destructive trading can be. I am making effort to humble myself, the truth is, one big winning trade is a drop in the bucket for all the years of small and massive losing trades I have experienced.

I hope retail trading was good to you today as it was for me.


YM 5-3-18
5-3-18


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5/2/18

A Lot Of Trading Luck A Bit Of Skill?

As I type this my latest YM short is up around 60+ pts, then I was stopped out with a 39pt profit, I  am going to avoid being greedy, I admit that for me, greed and good aggressive trading is a very thin line. I have made multiple trades today while locking in profits and minimizing risk.

Trade moves further down without me, but I am ok with that, right now YM is testing S1, that's an additional 67 points I could say was left on the table, the truth is the money always belongs to the market until you close your position and access to trading screens. With that said, I need to close down my screens and post this before I give back my $145 profit to the market.

Good trading all.


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4/25/18

Day Trading Trading Through The Rust

Add caption
Tried to short YM 23827 hoping for the selloff to continue, then I began suffering from FOMO again and tried going long a few times. I made back some of my loss with my last and final trade that captured 49 points. I will call today's trading a small victory, despite being down 1,177 on the YM, I was able to manage my last trade and stop trading when the market appeared to be stuck in range/chop territory. YM being under 24k I believe to be significant, hope to be in the zone when/if the market sells off further, I'll be back at it on Thursday.


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4/23/18

Livermore Quotes

Some of my favorite Livermore quotes from the list below are #1 #2 #4 #10
Because I am too lazy to compile my own top 10 Jesse Livermore quotes, I pulled these from
joefahmy.com | Twitter @jfahmy


1) The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time.
2) Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.
3) Do not use the words “Bullish” or “Bearish.” These words fix a firm market-direction in the mind for an extended period of time. Instead, use “Upward Trend” and “Downward Trend” when asked the direction you think the market is headed. Simply say: “The line of least resistance is either upward or downward at this time.” Remember, don’t fight the tape!
4) The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.
5) The only thing to do when a person is wrong is to be right, by ceasing to be wrong. Cut your losses quickly, without hesitation. Don’t waste time. When a stock moves below a mental-stop, sell it immediately.
6) Emotional control is the most essential factor in playing the market. Never lose control of your emotions when the market moves against you. Don’t get too confident over your wins or too despondent over your losses.
7) All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.
8) Watch the market leaders, the stocks that have led the charge upward in a bull market. That is where the action is and where the money is to be made. As the leaders go, so goes the entire market. If you cannot make money in the leaders, you are not going to make money in the stock market. Watching the leaders keeps your universe of stocks limited, focused, and more easily controlled.
9) Failure to take advantage of a serendipitous act of good luck in the stock market is often a mistake.
10) There is nothing new on Wall Street or in stock speculation. What has happened in the past will happen again, and again, and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion, solidly build into human nature, that always gets in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure.
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