A Lot Of Trading Luck A Bit Of Skill?

As I type this my latest YM short is up around 60+ pts, then I was stopped out with a 39pt profit, I  am going to avoid being greedy, I admit that for me, greed and good aggressive trading is a very thin line. I have made multiple trades today while locking in profits and minimizing risk.

Trade moves further down without me, but I am ok with that, right now YM is testing S1, that's an additional 67 points I could say was left on the table, the truth is the money always belongs to the market until you close your position and access to trading screens. With that said, I need to close down my screens and post this before I give back my $145 profit to the market.

Good trading all.

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Day Trading Trading Through The Rust

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Tried to short YM 23827 hoping for the selloff to continue, then I began suffering from FOMO again and tried going long a few times. I made back some of my loss with my last and final trade that captured 49 points. I will call today's trading a small victory, despite being down 1,177 on the YM, I was able to manage my last trade and stop trading when the market appeared to be stuck in range/chop territory. YM being under 24k I believe to be significant, hope to be in the zone when/if the market sells off further, I'll be back at it on Thursday.

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Livermore Quotes

Some of my favorite Livermore quotes from the list below are #1 #2 #4 #10
Because I am too lazy to compile my own top 10 Jesse Livermore quotes, I pulled these from | Twitter @jfahmy

1) The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time.
2) Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.
3) Do not use the words “Bullish” or “Bearish.” These words fix a firm market-direction in the mind for an extended period of time. Instead, use “Upward Trend” and “Downward Trend” when asked the direction you think the market is headed. Simply say: “The line of least resistance is either upward or downward at this time.” Remember, don’t fight the tape!
4) The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.
5) The only thing to do when a person is wrong is to be right, by ceasing to be wrong. Cut your losses quickly, without hesitation. Don’t waste time. When a stock moves below a mental-stop, sell it immediately.
6) Emotional control is the most essential factor in playing the market. Never lose control of your emotions when the market moves against you. Don’t get too confident over your wins or too despondent over your losses.
7) All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.
8) Watch the market leaders, the stocks that have led the charge upward in a bull market. That is where the action is and where the money is to be made. As the leaders go, so goes the entire market. If you cannot make money in the leaders, you are not going to make money in the stock market. Watching the leaders keeps your universe of stocks limited, focused, and more easily controlled.
9) Failure to take advantage of a serendipitous act of good luck in the stock market is often a mistake.
10) There is nothing new on Wall Street or in stock speculation. What has happened in the past will happen again, and again, and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion, solidly build into human nature, that always gets in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure.
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The Week Ahead

Posted 23 April, S&P 500: Dynamic chart continues to update price
I expect the market to be choppy this week, a lot of eyes and money will be waiting for Apple Financial Results - Q2 2018 May 1, 2018 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET 

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Patient Bear On Sidelines

April 18, 2018 

Pundits getting giddy on the market. I'm keeping my eye on ES 28,000 as possible resistance.
As long as companies are making money, does that equate to a rising market?
20/20 hindsight is fascinating, in the next bear market, what will be the smoking gun?
As I type this, I know I am still biased to the downside and have little interest in risking capital to the upside. 

I am still a bear on the sidelines, with the exception of 
WATT Aug 20 strike Call Option.

ES Daily

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Retail Trading Is Not Dead...Yet!

Been a while.

  I've gone silent the past few weeks, I have given myself time to think about the past 12-14 months of my trading experience. The would've, could've... has become the ongoing mantra for Trin Café much like most traders who's performance did not match their expectations. My bias to a market selloff (bear market) left me on the sidelines as I watched the market rise for much of 2017. When I did trade, it was against the overall bullish trend... I continued walking head first into bear traps. 

Stubborn or Bad timing? 

  Back in February, I posted the below chart I intended on updating on a weekly basis, a car crash and personal family matters shifted my priorities. The size I was trading with at the beginning of 2017 was 3-6 times the size I should have been trading with, 20/20 hindsight, I felt like I was going for the market's jugular (FOMO). Politics aside, I expected the volatility to dramatical increase the day after Trump was elected, I was trading as if I wanted to be the first trader to identify the housing bubble back in 2008. I know I have to take a step back mentally and physically; a complete reset for how, what, when and why I put a trade on. 


Trading View, I'm still bearish.

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Many Many Many Thanks!

Not my usual kind post here on Trin Café, but this seems like the best place for me to share some of my reflection on what's really important in life despite the market turmoil or poor trading performance (2017). On Friday, February 1st I went for a ride in my weekend driver, a 2006 Corvette Z06, for those who are not familiar with Corvettes or sports cars, the 2006 Z06 model is the poor man's exotic performance car with 505hp, 11 seconds in the quarter mile, and it can pull 1.2g.

With all that said, I was going into a curve at maybe 40 miles per hour, not at all an extreme speed, especially for this car, as I attempt to brake before entering the curve, I quickly realize nothing was happening. In fractions of a second, I knew trying to turn would make the situation much worse. If you ever wonder what you would do if your brakes go out, see the youtube video here, I chose to hold on went straight ahead off the road and hit a gate/pole. Thankfully the pole gave way enough to slow me down, I went up and over the pole into a spin where the car came to a stop.

I was shaken up but ok (back a bit sore), I got out the car to assess the damage and gather my senses feeling pretty bad about the damage to the front end of the car and the scratches the barbed wire fenced caused. Then Murphy's law kicked into high gear, I noticed a small flame coming from under the car that quickly grew into a full-on blaze. In just a matter of seconds, my car was engulfed in flames. After calling 911, it took 5 minutes for the fire department to arrive, another 30 minutes for them to completely put out the fire.
I have spent the past few days sulking. and trying to recall what had happen, what could I have done differently, then I began to realize how fortunate I am to have walked away from a horrific looking accident, a number of things could have gone wrong, such as my seat belt could have jammed trapping me in the car, the car could have hit a solid object like a tree knocking me unconscious; my brakes could have failed while trying to stop at a busy intersection putting other people in jeopardy, the list goes on and on.

An accident like this help put things into perspective for me, if you are religious in nature or not, being grateful for your health and well being is an important life skill that can be easily lost in a culture where we keep score by how much money is made or lost. Truth be told, I feel my priorities have been identified for a long time now, "quality time" spent with family and friends, travel and service to others. Knowing my priorities are easy to think and write about, but to live them every day as a life mission statement will be my life's purpose. In future posts here on Trin Café, I will elaborate on these priorities, until then friends, please be grateful for your health, the health of your friends and family.

Take care!

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Panic Button

YM Daily

The chart above is what I have been using to try to stay aware of what the market is doing from a macro perspective. The world knows that the market has fallen fiercely, does that mean it's time to put on your bear suit? To be a buyer or a seller, it all depends on your time frame and strategy. I'm attempting to slow trade this market and not be freaked out by the drama. Who would be surprised "if" the market rebounds back into its previous bullish channel in the next few days?

If I stay true to what the technicals are saying, this is still a bull market... on a daily chart. Pros buy support so the hedge funds and HFT will be looking to buy on a discount leaving the rest out of the party still shell-shocked. We all have our breaking point where we are ready to tap out and say "No Mas". My pain button is just below YM 24785, I expect we all will learn where this market will go this week.

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Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien

Edith Piaf, Songwriter, Singer(1915–1963)

 Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien
[No, I do not regret anything]

  Have you ever daydreamed about what you would do differently if you had your own time machine? If you ever had the slightest feeling of regret, or the traders should've could've would've syndrome, you probably would not have minded having the 20/20 foresight on hand when deciding to make that blunder of a trade.  It has been a while since I taken the time to write a post of any real substance on Trin Café, my excuse boils down to a lack of motivation. 

  My long-term goal has been to trade for a living for the lifestyle I want for myself and my family... as I mentioned here on the blog, my 2017 bearish bias in this balls-out bull market wrecked havoc on my account. Trading setups I have seen hundreds of times before resulted in the trade going sideways ending in me getting stopped out, or worse, overtrading looking to break even then looking to make a profit and so on down the rabbit hole.

  Maybe 2017 was the best thing to happen on many different levels. The title of Trader, or Day Trader implies I am always in action in the market, at a minimum a few times a week. The old adage that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent still holds true regardless of how big your account is. 2018 is a positive year for me so far, mainly on a few long option positions that worked out well... duh. The market is still going nuts on the buy it upside, someone reading this might be saying all you have to do is #BTFD right?!

 How My Bear Bias Began.

I've been trading, making and losing real money since 2002, if you recall, the market was still falling from the dot-com bubble and the 9-11 terrorist attacks. The best trades that were available were shorts. See a pattern of lower highs and lower lows and it was like a dog whistle on what to do next. My best trading year was in 2008, the market selloff was dramatic.When fear grips the market, panic selling is a bears best friend... did I mention that I have a bias to sell than buy?  The idea of buying a dip in 2002 or 2008 was crazy talk!

Now, the way forward is not all that complicated, it's to take advantage of the overall market as we all know we should be doing. Fear of losing and missing out is what keeps us from doing what is in our best interest. My fear is being long and then getting mauled by a sudden bear attack. In the event of a bearish market, I plan to be armed with my day trading and options trading experience.

The Big Picture

My goal going forward is to keep investing/trading simple with my mind focused on long-term rather than short-term gain. I will continue using options to participate in the market for the five following reasons.

  1. Options can be bought at a fraction of the underline stock.
  2. Losses can be secured at a fixed figure.
  3. Profit can grow exponentially, 50% 100%  %300... 
  4. Time is not spent laser focused day trading.
  5. I can think of better things to do with my time than be in front of a screen.

What will you say to your self 10-20 years from now?

Trin Café's Future

I began this blog to share my excitement and ideas about retail trading with other traders.  Now I do most of my retail trading chatter on Twitter. Who knows, I may move to a Caribbean island and Trin Cafè becomes a blog about being an "expat island hopping rum drinking lover of life"?

Take Care!

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Jesse L. Livermore said it best!

I learned that I have a bearish biased about the market regardless of how far it has continued to rise month after month. Day trading has its place for me inside my toolbox, What was once selloffs a long time ago are not "opportunities" or excuses to buy the market back up with a vengeance. Mentally, it's easier for me to be long a Call option and let it simmer for a week or two, hopefully closing it out for a decent profit. Maybe in 2018 I will have the opportunity to put my bear hat on and go to work with some day trading, until then, I will get in line and look for opportunities to #BTFD with options.

“ It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. ”
- Jesse L. Livermore
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Make 2018 Your Best Year! [Update]

Happy New Year! 

So it's another year in the bag, truth be told, this year had its ups... then mostly down for my trading account. A quick update on where I am at in life and with this blog, I am no longer day trading on a daily or weekly basis. A severe trading account drawdown has a way of helping a person reevaluate their trading strategy.

I'm not completely done with trading, quite the opposite, I have maintained and closed option positions throughout 2017 and will continue to do the same in 2018. I'm still getting over my jetlag from my holiday vacation to Martinique. When I'm rested, I intend on taking some time to map out how I will manage my trading account as well as this blog Trin Café.

I've found that twitter accomplishes my desire to share my trading thoughts and rants and it's the fastest way to interact with other traders, the blog is feeling dated and time-consuming to update and maintain... and it's not free. I will give myself a few weeks to make my plan for the rest of the year on the way forward, I hope this to be the best year for all of us personally and professionally.


A summary of my options trading/house cleaning activity below. I'm still that deer awed by the headlights of this bull market. As I look DIA chart on my 47" screen, I am looking at the technicals on a weekly chart and the bullishness is hard for me to comprehend!

DIA weekly chart, BTFD was the winning mantra for 2017.

Take care!
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