Another Line In The Sand

I've been a lot less active blogging about my trading for the usual reasons most trading bloggers slow down or completely stop blogging. Day trading this past year for me has been dismal. My (wrong) bias to the market being overbought has given me good reason to pause and reassess my trading style and goals. My trading has often felt like I have been just drawing lines in the sand and waiting to see what will happen next.

My bias has not changed... they say a broken clock is right twice a day (right?), I'm doing my best to be patient with this market to be able to have the capital available to leverage a market correction. With all that said, I have a DIA 235 Put with an expiration date of March 2018. 

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If you never had a margin call before, good for you! I will tell you from past and current experience, it does not get any more humbling than that. Back on the grind of getting my "dumb money" trading account back to a respectable level.

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Are We Bearish Yet?

I have no clue if this is the beginning of the end... no pun intended, but right now my options positions are as bearish as they can get... I can't force myself to buy into a bullish position in anticipation of a recovery.

In other news, I'm back from vacation. 
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Options Portfolio

I'm still mentally on vacation, hence this short post. Day trading conditions have been choppy the entire summer, I'm going to sit back and see how much this bull market has left.
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Tech Technical Analysis

Your basic technical analysis (TA) is suppose to help a trader identify a trend in the market, or the beginning of a new trend. We all know the money is made in beginning of the trend and managing to get out before it's over, and yes, it's always easier said than done. The chart above is via the website, the same trend lines most traders are concerned with are marked automatically with out any effort on my part. For those who know TA works, the above chart is worth paying attention to.

For the experienced TA geeks out there, I argue that QQQ has significantly  broken it's upward trend line. We all know that perma bulls and algos may determine this to be the perfect buying opportunity, still too early to tell if we are watching the beginning of a correction in tech, but it is fun to watch.

"My XLK option is having its best day so far, "On Watch", I'm looking forward to seeing how the bulls respond to what ever CNBC is being most dramatic about in the month of July." 
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When Will The Music Stop On The Bull Market?

Picking up from yesterday's post, every institution and retail trader alike are searching for where the next bubble will pop. Will the bubble be in tech, or in financial, maybe it will be in real-estate?
I often make pundit like claims that are all intended to be satire in nature, pundits get paid for sharing their opinions, see CNBC. At TRIN Café my opinions are from just another retail trader who only makes a profit when I'm right about market direction; when I am wrong I do not hide from my previous statements, I try to adjust to current market conditions as fast as reasonably possible.

I think I was putting down some sort of disclaimer?

My "Bubble Watch List" XLE, XLF, and XLK are ETF's that cover energy, financial and technology, including as of today is Vanguard's (VNQ)  REIT (real estate investment trusts) ETF. To make it easier on myself and hopefully on the readers of this blog, the watchlist will get its own page making it easier to comment on through the summer.

For the chart geek in me, see below chart, VNQ may be the first clue to when this bull market is running out of steam?

VNQ has formed a 3 top, in the next week we will find out how the market reacts to price/resistance.

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Dumb Money Is Bearish This Summer!

It's not a secret that I'm bearish on this aging bull market, we all know that trying to time a market correction is a futile attempt, smart money would just get long the market until the music stops playing. My dumb money [disposable day trading capital] wants to participate in a market selloff that has not yet occurred.

I woke up at 4 a.m. wondering why I have such a bearish bias despite witnessing a bull market, then I realized my biased began when I was introduced to trading way back in '02. The dot-com bubble was still fresh in my memory, I traded very well through the 2007 subprime/credit swap fiasco, and I was in early on the "great recession" recovery in 2009. This is not the usual daily rant here on TRIN Café, I'm hinting at the few times a year or a decade that can make the difference in long-term trading success or bottom-feeding for a few points/ticks at a time.

The almost should've, could've, would've is littered throughout this blog, I'm determined to be on board when this bull market turns the corner. With that said, I'm risking a total of $416.54 for the summer in the below option positions. The only clear bearish chart is XLE [Enrgy], the other two charts XLK [Tech] and XLF [Financial] are well into bullish territory, I admit I am way out ahead of any bearish signals.

Summer Option Portfolio

Sep 15 '17 55 Put @ 1.28 | as of 6/21/17 XLK 55.64

Sep 29 '17 64 Put @ 2.43 | as of 6/21/17 XLE 64.75

Sep 29 '17 24 Put @ .68 | as of 6/21/17 XLF 24.20

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Summer Time Options Trading

As quickly as I posted about being long DIA Sep 29th'17 215 Call just yesterday, I became nervous and took my profit. Now may be the time to stick it out and ride this market higher, but the day trader in me is fearful of a dramatic selloff and my option play was with some size, I didn't have the testicular fortitude to hold on to the position for more than a week.

I bought @ 3.05 and closed the position at 4.20, a 20% profit is better than a 100% loss. As I type this, DIA Sep 29th'17 215 Call is @ 4.76. The DIA option increased in value as the YM is down -0.07%, boggles my mind as to why that would be? My love-hate relationship with trading options will continue through the summer.

DIA 6/20/17

Moving on to my travel plans, I will not bring my laptop with me [over seas], it would be an excuse to look at a chart to day-trade. As I said before, I'm on a day trading vacation. I will have my phone readily available to manage any new option positions I open up. As for this blog, whenever I stumble across a wifi connection, I will be updating TRIN Café with new updates. My option watch list is anchored by SPY, QQQ, and DIA, I will be including CL and VNQ [Vangaurd REIT Index Fund] options into the mix, to cover all the bases of the overall economy. If a big move is going to happen, you will see it happen in one or a few of the below charts.

Futures quotes delayed 20 minutes. 
Copyright © 2007-2017 All Rights Reserved.

6/20/17 SPY @ 243.40
6/20/17 QQQ @ 139.64

6/20/17 DIA @ 214.63
6/20/17 CL @ 43.48
6/20/17 VNQ @ 84.40
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Trading With The Sharks Today

Swim with sharks for a living.
This week I am actively participating in these shark infested markets because I have the feeling the market will see some significant moves, this theory is based on tech selling off on Friday. Took more trades than usual, but I felt good about each and every trade, I kept my stops small, hence the 66.67% 61.54% win percentage. ZC and CL were my two biggest losers today, no worries, I will be ready for what comes my way this week.
ZC -132 today
HE  +61 despite IB and NT data, not in sync

HE looks a lot different on IB

Better Trading Ahead!

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Opportunity To Clarify Summer Vacation

Please give me the opportunity to clarify summer vacation to the TRIN Café readers, particularly to the individual ( will remain anonymous) that texted me with concern that my last post was a hidden message of me giving up trading because I’m at my “breaking point of quitting.”
Part of my summer vacation is to attend a wedding that will be in Denmark, and while in Europe, I plan on spending some time in Amsterdam and Germany. I’ve been trading long enough to know the markets in the summer has a historic history of being stuck in a congested price range for weeks at a time. I’m fortunate enough to be able to travel and not have to worry about making the next trade during the dog days of summer, been there done that, have a couple t-shirts to prove it. Fear not, I will return to posting regularly my day trading wins and losses at the end of August.

While on vacation, I will likely buy a few options with expirations of 90 and 120 days out. Day trading requires being consistently in your own zone, my zone happens to be inside my office where I use a 17" laptop with an extended desktop onto a 19" monitor and a 45" LCD TV. I trust my home internet connection, and I have zero distractions in the office. I have to mention that my Bowflex dumbells are just a few feet away, doing curls and dumbbell exercises, while the market is choppy makes for an awesome work out lol. If the concern that TRIN Café was going to go dark while on vacation, I apologize for the confusion. I will be active posting technical analysis, and tweeting trade alerts from my “trendy watchlist” playing the role of a summer pundit with no capital at risk... for entertainment purposes only, not trading advice, stay tuned.

Note: If anyone was wondering why I will be back in the office at the end of August, see the bold punditry and chart below lol.

The US economy will slow down at the end of August, early September, credit will be drying up as banks hold on to more cash out of fear of recession, this will only exacerbate the situation leading to commercial and retail defaults. President Trump's presidency will still be intact but barely, his own party will be distancing them selfs from him. In Septemeber's FOMC meeting, interest rates will rise causing an increase in credit card debt; vehicle loans and mortgage delinquencies will increase indicating trouble ahead.
Market topped out at the end of summer in 1987

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Day Trading Vacation Starts Today!

A better title would be a vacation from day trading, but that sounds kind of negative. The market is sixty seconds from opening, I am prepared to take a trade if my criteria are met, I might be more ready to do nothing and start my summer break early? Trading can be mentally tiring, especially if you are trading poorly (long pause) Wow, I was contemplating getting long ZC, as traders do, I even tweeted about it here lol. No regrets, no would’ve should’ve could’ve, I’m ready to take a break.

technical is analysis is adequate enough to be used to spot where not to trade.

With each trade, I feel I am learning something new about myself or the market, for example, I correctly identified the area of congestion in ZC, I feel good that I can hang my hat on the fact that my technical is analysis is adequate enough to be used to spot where not to trade... I will say that again because I think it's worth repeating, technical is analysis is adequate enough to be used to spot where not to trade.

Well, I'm in no mood to chase the market for a trade, and I know myself after all these years of trading, if I sit here long enough, I will force a trade that I would regret. I hope the best for all the traders who have the desire, drive, and humility to attempt to trade their own money. Enjoy the charts below where I highlighted the area of congestion, also referred to as chop.


Serious momentum out of congestion area

"Better Trading ahead!"

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