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11/22/16

DOW CLOSES ABOVE 19,000



Now that the U.S. elections are a thing of the past, markets have clearly determined to go higher, enlarge part without me on board. My usual indicators to get short or long have been weak to non-existent. I don't remember seeing this kind of volatility for such an extended period of time, I would be interested in knowing how current volatility compares to the previous ten years of market data.

Is this the new normal?

As a contrarian type trader, I am still waiting for if and when the market pulls back, the correction will be a substantial one considering how far the market has moved already. This is one of the longest bull markets in history, I'm hoping to be dialed in and ready for if and when a selloff occurs.  

As I am reminded of the lessons learned by Jesse L. Livermore, I will adapt to the current market conditions.

Here's what we can expect now that the Dow has closed above 19,000




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9/25/16

Take What The Market Is Giving.


Some days
 the nut
 is bigger
 than other days.



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9/8/16

How To Vacation Like a Retail Trader.

Yellowstone Park | Photo by Ashley Knedler

I like to imagine myself as a jet-setting carefree trader. I have gone as far as counting the number of days I would have available to travel by factoring in number of trading days, my expected win/loss ratio and I included sick days.

I'm currently on vacation visiting Yellowstone, instead of planning what my family and I will visit next, I'm thinking about what I would be doing in the market right now, last time I checked ten minutes ago, it looked like a nice selloff. 

Trading is about being in the moment, managing the risk trying to get the entry, stop and exit just right. After years of preparing for trading success, having to learn to detach from what's happening in the market might be more difficult than I would have ever imagined.

My new challenge is to channel that same trading energy, patience and focus into the moment I have when I'm on vacation with the family or spending time with friends. 


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8/30/16

When A Bad Trade Works

Trin Café "a trading for a living blog, inception 2017" was suppose to serve as a easy to read disclaimer of what Trin Café is about, and a reminder to myself that I will not put any capital at risk until 2017.  Well, inception came earlier than expected, I began trading as early as the month of August. 

2017 has been the chosen time frame because I would be able to commit my time from market open to market close. I've said it many times before, to have a chance at day trading successfully, it requires a method that's at least a break even win loss ratio, decent money management principals, and the time to be there in the moment when your method and the market are all aligned.

I rarely post charts on Trin Café anymore because I don't believe charts to be of value, a lot of what it means to trade is to be in the moment, putting your experience and capital at risk will be different for every individual trader. A traders circumstances and risk tolerance is like their own fingerprint, but for what it's worth; I was motivated enough to post this really bad trade that worked.

The below chart is of the YM on August 26th, I was fortunate that this trade worked in my favor. If you remember, August 26th Janet Yellen was speaking. The case can be made that trading on a FOMC day should be avoided, the markets can be very erratic, I'm talking about the kind of violent price swings that knock out the most well placed stops leading a lot of traders to get whipsawed and overtrade... been there done that countless number of times.

However, with access to my mobile trading app, I have had some early trading success. But with success, one of my many trading flaws is ego. I made a few trades that went against me, for a week, I dug a 13% hole into my account. I know very well that drawdowns are apart of trading, but trading on a phone with suspect reception and a shady battery has nothing to do with my method... I will explain that one in another post soon.

With all of that said, I told another trader I would share why I made the trade last Friday, but it was important to share the bigger picture, that day trading is not always easy, technical analysis has merit, but money management and trading psychology is where I intend on focusing  myself and this blog.

Now for the Technical Analysis... (Not that complicated)

I sold 18531 because I saw that price made a lower high, a quick sell with the hope that another lower low would come my way. 

Crazy? Only crazy if I did not immediately place a tight stop at 18549. With each lower low in my favor is what gave me confidence to place my stop from 18549 into a profit stop.

Note: The below chart is from NinjaTrader, my phone app looks nothing like this; another reason I can't trade on my phone any more.


YM Aug 26th 2016


Again, I was fortunate to turn a negative month into a positive month on one trade. Day trading well requires a commitment to consistency.

- Trin



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8/27/16

Trin Café Performance



For the few trading bloggers who share their daily, monthly performance, I tip my hat to you all. I experimented with various "performance" pages here on Trin Café over the years, and admittedly, discontinued because another small (practice) trading account was hit with the dreaded margin call.

Now that I am weeks away to trade for a living, the idea of posting a performance page is giving me mixed feelings. I question the purpose or motivation for a P&L page.

1. Maybe to prove to (no offence) anonymous Trin Café visitors that trading for a living has some merit?

a. A track record of profits would be questioned as faked, I have nothing to prove.
b. Family, friends & neighbors and random strangers have a view into my pocket/bank account.
c. The realities of being down 10% in one month and up 5% by the end of the month can be stressful, it requires a lot of emotional fortitude to accept that as part of a trading business. Having to explain this with a non-trader is not a conversation I am prepared to have.

2. Maybe, I could share my trades as an educational service?

a. I would feel like a salesman.
b. Trading requires a personalized method that suits the individual's risk tolerance and time frame.
c. I would feel like a salesman.

3.  Maybe displaying an impressive P&L will help promote and sell.... (Fill in the blank)

a. I would feel like a salesman, I question trading websites that push newsletters, training videos, and paid for coached sessions on their website.
b. To successfully trade, how would anyone have the time to coach?
c. Would be nice to have advertisers who pay.


Disclaimer: I have never paid for a trading newsletter or a coaching service. My contrarian nature has a distrust of salespeople; if anyone has had a great experience with any paid for trading service that they feel has helped them become a better trader, please comment or contact me.

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8/17/16

Stock Market Performance by President

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8/9/16

My First Paycheck

It feels kind of embarrassing to admit that I have never paid myself from any of my previous trading profits. I think my excuse or reasoning was that I didn't feel an urgent need for the money. For years I have been able to just rationalize that, "I'm building my account" or, that the capital I was trading with was just a trader's "tuition". This logic is flawed for many reasons, the main one being that it leads to bad habits. By not taking a predetermined % of profits, I'm putting profits at risk. I don't know if you can relate to this, but I'm subconsciously telling myself I can take a risky trade or even worse, take a trade not within my method ...also known as a bad trade; all because I view the profit in my account as "house money."

I'm not funding an expensive hobby, this is my business.
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8/3/16

Don't Trade!


Someone once told me that "the older I get, the more I repeat my old stories", to that I say, some stories are worth repeating.

One of the most difficult things about trading is consistency. Consistency in not just your trading method, but in your state of mind.

If you need a pep-talk or feeling the blues, don't trade.

Think you need to prove the naysayers wrong, don't trade.

Need money desperately to pay bills, don't trade.

Think your an amazing trader and can not lose, don't trade.
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7/8/16

Retail Trader's Emotional IQ


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7/6/16

DIA SPY QQQ Big Picture - 7/6/16


With all the market jitters, it can be hard to see through the fog.

Taking a step back, DIA and SPY technicals indicate bullish sentiment, QQQ appear to be trending sideways.


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7/5/16

DIA Technicals, Entering Dog Days of Summer - 7/5/16

DIA Resistance 180, support 170. 

Hard to make a bullish case for $DIA.

I expect a lot of chop within 180/170 range through the summer.

If your a retail trader who has been profitable so far this year, don't give it all back in the dog days of summer.


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