Big Money On The Move

Like every other trader, I like to think I could have been astute enough to get a chunk out of Thursday's market action.

As I go through my routine of manually reviewing my method against the chart, I know that I could have easily have gotten crushed. The market volatility would have punished the greedy. For example, trying to short the YM (Above chart) at 0945 would have immediately faced a 100 point pull back! My goodness that's scary and humbling to even imagine being on the wrong side of that trade.  

Not a market prediction, just an observation. I'm trying to avoid predicting what will happen next, I know as a trader/speculator, that's kinda of what we do. Let me try to explain myself. I want to develop the habit of emotional detachment from what I hope or want to happen in the market for the sake of being able to react appropriately to what is actually happening.

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Trin Café: Trading For A Living

Trin Café, a blog about trading for a living, well more about the preparation to trade for a living. I was once a regular poster of what trades I was taking or just my random thoughts about trading; I admittedly/purposely have not taken the time to maintain the blog. As the count down to trade for a living begins, I am surprised at myself that I am sharing less of what I plan to (attempt) trade for a living.

The truth is, most people think trading is gambling, I find it easier to avoid the judgmental look in their eyes by not bringing it up. Can you blame them? I might as well tell people who ask what my future plans are is that I am going to try out for a NBA team. High risk of failure that only gifted professional athletes have a chance at, most who try to play in the NBA fail, a lot like trading for a living. I can say, I have had more success trading, at 5'9 and a limited vertical and horrible outside shot, I am going to try my luck at trading.

Back to my point of not posting, with over 500 posts I removed from this blog for various reasons such as the above mentioned avoiding awkward conversations; but this is a topic that I will save for another post. In the mean time, I un-archived a few old posts on Technical analysis for your reading pleasure.

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The Challenges of Trading Small Futures Accounts

A old article, but still worth a read, especially in light of current market conditions.


The Challenges of Trading Small Futures Accounts

Don Dawson 
One of the reasons many traders gravitate towards trading Futures is the relatively low start-up cost. For example, it usually requires about $30,000 to open a stock day trading account and you must maintain at least $25,000 to keep your day trading status.Continue Reading
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DJIA Selling Off?


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Does Technical Trading Really Work? Technical Analysis 101 By Jonas Elmerraji

"Is technical analysis the Holy Grail for investors? Or is it just tea leaf reading?"
It shouldn't come as a surprise that talking about investing strategies brings up strong emotions among their practitioners. After all, people's money is on the line. But few topics draw the same polar degrees of ire and praise that technical analysis does. The thing is, many of the biggest TA critics don't really understand how technicians actually use their toolbox to make money in the markets. Continue to article
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Increasing Account Size

I came across a good read on how and when to increase your trading size, the author Austin Passamonte breaks it down to what it means to trade like a professional.

"Our profession of trading is often referred to as a game. Games include winners and losers. Games include competition, self-improvement and record performances. Games include records set, trophies and prizes awarded for he/she who scores the most points, defends the most plays or otherwise outperforms all else in their field of play." 
 Continue here

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Know Your Bread & Butter

My bread & butter type of trading!
After over a decade, I have had a enough day trading success that I still believe that there is a chance for myself to trade for living. In my trading (most years) experience, I have also been humbled many times about my lack of ability and emotional/capital limitations are for day trading. My method and appetite for risk dramatically limits the amount of "good" trading opportunities that I feel comfortable taking.

On days where the DJIA moves 100 or 200 plus points, I feel it is my duty to be "in the zone" to take advantage of the these kind of limited opportunities. Markets can go for weeks in choppy trading conditions... coincidentally, where majority of my capital has been lost.
30 Jan 2015
As I am not yet a full time trader, I can only dream about the realities of waiting for the best trades. I expect the day to day waiting to trade will be a boring grind, I'm ok with that as long as I can be consistent with taking the good trade and true to my method and sound money management principals.

30 Jan 2015 | Not my Bread & Butter (B&B) trade. Low ADX keeps me from getting in.
-- I began this post without looking at any charts, under the assumption with today's big loss, there must have been my ideal trading conditions that fit into my method. After reviewing the charts, I was dead wrong on my assumption. I can admit that I easily could have easily been whipped-sawed as I could have shorted right before each retracement,  my stops would have been hit with today's glorious volatility for sure.

 Had to dig up a good example of my Bread & Butter (BNB) conditions. A thing of beauty when it ends with a profit.
Note: I rarely share what my method is, or how it works. Methods are as personal as a tailored suit, maybe after years of trading success, I will consider writing the book, so for now, my method is primarily technical analysis with the use of DM indicator.

Good trading!

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Just Charts (ES/YM) 28 Jan 2015

Below EMA 26
DM Indicator
EMA 26
DM Indicator

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Bullish Engulfing Pattern?

Bull or Bear?

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When is it time to panic and take cover?

Choose your side.
Unfortunately, the way the market works is that most people will not reap the benefits for staying true to their convictions of using some kind of technical analysis, and decent money management principals, rather we give into fear and the heard mentality. My self included many times before have strayed away from my original plans to only regret not following through, followed by would've, should've, could've.

The purpose of this post is for my own visual reference, a moment to tune out the pundits and the news to see what the market is doing for myself, not to be swayed in one direction over another. As much as I would like my bullish positions to skyrocket, I can't be blinded by my own wants or dreams.

ES 1/13/5
The way I see it, we are days or a week away from the market selling off further, or holding true to the trend-lines I have drawn on the above chart and pushing higher. If ES is your instrument of choice, life above 2100 would be sweet if your bullish; "Big Money" would like to push the market there as well, but without the little guy along for the ride. It feels like we have been here before, there is that line in the sand traders are going to have to choose a side to be on before the market can move further.

If I were daytrading, I would look to short 2000 if broken, bulls panic below 1984 and 1960.

JPM earning 1/14/15, #Whispernumber

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Long Term Option Strategy 2-6-13

For the year, the account is up 8.33%, it was at a high of over 17% up until I "panicked" and wanted to close all of my positions and short/hedge the market; I would have been better of with doing nothing than trying to react to the short-term market reactions 20/20.

As I prepare for my hiatus, I have been posting a lot more regularly than I anticipated, I didn't think I would be this active trading options at this moment in my life (moving). The lack of my foreseeable day trading spawned the idea of the long term option strategy. This strategy will require some serious commitment to the market gyrations; I will have to continue to remind myself of ebb & flow.

In the future, I plan on posting just a monthly update on the long-term strategy account performance. I will update the left side of the blog with what is currently in my portfolio. The goal is very simple, I want to ride out the options with expiration dates set to expire in 2014 and continue adding to my positions throughout 2013... ebb & flow.

Good trading to you all!

- Trin
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