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10/10/18

SELL OFF!

YM 5min Chart
I'm doing my best not to regret closing my DIA NOV02'18 270 PUT. I took an 80% increase in option value over what is now a 300% gain... would've should've could've I know.

I did not day trade this chart, other than the option positions I closed today. Perhaps this is just another bear trap, either way, I took my profit off the table and I will wait for a market retracement before I decide to get short again... via options.


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5/29/18

May 28th 2018

I cut my losses on previous AAPL options positions. The Bull Put on AAPL 185/175.5 PUT Option expires June 8th, it still may be profitable, the break-even was AAPL @ 183 by Jun 8th expiration.
I'd rather close my long position and prepare my portfolio for a potential negative downturn. I've been bearish for damn near two years, looking at the Geopolitical landmines coming up with the Russian investigation along with Euro stress from Italian political turmoil has me cautious to the upside. We have three choices as traders, go long, go short, or do nothing and sit on the sidelines.
For the knowledgeable options traders out there, yes there are strategies that can make money options trading in a low volatility market. I believe betting against high volatility is a recipe for disaster in the long term.

Portfolio
YM September PUT 24600 Strike
FXE September PUT 110 Strike
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5/21/18

Options Trading With Apple (AAPL)

No trades today. In my 16 years of trading, I have primarily day traded 60-70% of the time, the other trading I was doing  attempting was in options. My understanding of options is better than average, with that said, I know I am not sophisticated (smart) enough to implement too many complexed option strategies at one time.

See below for some of the various option strategies. 
Option Strategies
Options I have baking in the oven.

Max credit by Jun 8th exp. $244
Looking for AAPL 185 Call to go higher this summer

Today my P&L was positive $152, or I could say I was visiting "Profit Island", a phrase a shamelessly stole from Rhiese over on his blog Trading & Stuff.  The trader I want to be is the kind that trades 70% options and 30% day trading.

Options give a trader the ability to lock in the profit as well as the risk. At the end of the day, we are all trading because we believe we can identify and minimize our downside risk. Currently, my winning day trades gives my account that quick injection of P&L that makes trading feel worthwhile. However, with every winning trade, I have been prone to overtrading digging myself a deeper hole to climb out of.

YM 5min 
As I mentioned, I didn't daytrade today knowing I have capital tied up in option positions. The YM was up more than 250 points, I'm happy to say that I had zero FOMO. As I reviewed this chart, my trading style/technique/method would have had me trading in chop, possibly dangerously overtrading?

Hope we all end the week, month, year on "Profit Island"!
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5/4/18

Managing A Winning Trade Is As Good As It Gets

As I type this post, I feel fortunate to be able to just sit back and manage another winning trade. I am experimenting with how I will continue blogging here at Trin Café. As many of you know, the time and motivation it takes to post and the mental gymnastics required to keep the psychological aspect of trading in check is a daily grind. Posting on Trin Café has served as a therapeutic and creative space for me to share my thoughts on trading and as I said before, I appreciate the interaction with other retail traders which are a rare breed.

Good read: Jesse Livermore on Emotional Control By  in Trading Performance and Psychology
"A trader can never become complacent. Livermore was always alert, ready, prepared to separate himself from the popular thinking of the moment, the group thinking that usually always drives the market, and to go in the opposite direction. Livermore believed in cycles. There is a time when things are good and a time when things turn bad. It is true in this life for all of us, and it is true in the stock market. The good times are coming and so are the bad times—the question for a successful trader is not will they come…it is when will they come?"

I'm thinking of putting more detail and effort into my charts and less time into actual blogging, I might be able to articulate what I am thinking while I stair at candlesticks? Chart porn is really a thing check it out.

YM 1 min Chart, letting a winner run while locking in a profit.

5/4/18


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5/3/18

Getting Cocky 5/3/18

https://unsplash.com/@clark1

Let me paint the picture for you, I put a trade on within 5 minutes of turning on my computer. As I was getting out of the shower I heard on the radio that the DJIA was down 100+ points. Did I mention my wife and my toddler and I were about to leave the house this morning? The YM was hovering around a support area, within 5 minutes price dropped below support and I quickly executed YM short @ 23679. My entry was automated to enter a target @ 23679 which happen to be the next area of support and a stop @ 23730. I anticipated being stopped out for a loss and then the market would sell off without me.

So what's so cocky about that you ask? Now it's time to go take my kid to daycare and my wife to the
hospital who's been having baby contractions all night. With my trade working, I felt confident my(big) stop order was in place so my risk is baked into this trade. So, after dropping my kid off,
and checking my wife into the hospital, I had a chance to check in on my trade from my phone

(in the hospital by my wife's side) to my surprise and delight, the trade worked well for a 100 point $500 profit. As I typed this, I was in the hospital with my wife not monitoring the market action, the last time I checked, the market was down 200+ points, I managed to capture 100 points. And yes, I was done trading for the day.

Big wins are hard to hold on to when discretionary trading, often too often times the ego and subconscious will increase the risk soon after a win and ruin previous profits. Being right and making quick money triggers a chemical reaction of dopamine that can be addictive. It takes a lot of experience and losing trades to understand how destructive trading can be. I am making effort to humble myself, the truth is, one big winning trade is a drop in the bucket for all the years of small and massive losing trades I have experienced.

I hope retail trading was good to you today as it was for me.


YM 5-3-18
5-3-18


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5/2/18

A Lot Of Trading Luck A Bit Of Skill?

As I type this my latest YM short is up around 60+ pts, then I was stopped out with a 39pt profit, I  am going to avoid being greedy, I admit that for me, greed and good aggressive trading is a very thin line. I have made multiple trades today while locking in profits and minimizing risk.

Trade moves further down without me, but I am ok with that, right now YM is testing S1, that's an additional 67 points I could say was left on the table, the truth is the money always belongs to the market until you close your position and access to trading screens. With that said, I need to close down my screens and post this before I give back my $145 profit to the market.

Good trading all.


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4/25/18

Day Trading Trading Through The Rust

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Tried to short YM 23827 hoping for the selloff to continue, then I began suffering from FOMO again and tried going long a few times. I made back some of my loss with my last and final trade that captured 49 points. I will call today's trading a small victory, despite being down 1,177 on the YM, I was able to manage my last trade and stop trading when the market appeared to be stuck in range/chop territory. YM being under 24k I believe to be significant, hope to be in the zone when/if the market sells off further, I'll be back at it on Thursday.


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2/23/17

Party Like It's 1999!?

As a technical trader who prides him self on catching the big trend, I can confess that this bull run has left me in the dust. In 2017, I never expected the DOW to reach far above 20,000, in fact, my entire strategy for 2017 was to be prepared to short the guts out of the market... surprise surprise, pundits are talking DOW 30,000 in the next four years.

This is the kind of market J. Livermore wrote about, being able to be long in the market even when it feels difficult. That is easier said than done, market has away of scaring both bulls and bears out of their positions.

I met a guy who explained to me how well he did in the stock market back in 90's. He casually told me he would just buy, and buy more when the market dipped. Not a bit of technical analysis, he didn't even know what technical analysis meant. Just buy blindly.

Well, we are who we are, I will remain on the sidelines until until until I see a clear bearish trend.

Enjoy the rally! 

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6/29/16

YM 6/29/16


R1 18000
S1  17200
S2  16961

It was last Thursday's Brexit vote, that triggered a 976 pt nose dive, the market has recovered 690 pts. Surprise surprise, we are 286 pts from previous highs.

I try to avoid giving predictions to where price will go next, the mind can fall in love with our own opinions, clouding judgment on what is actually happening.
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1/28/15

Just Charts (ES/YM) 28 Jan 2015

Below EMA 26
See related post WHEN IS IT TIME TO PANIC AND TAKE COVER?
DM Indicator
EMA 26
DM Indicator

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