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6/21/17

Dumb Money Is Bearish This Summer!


It's not a secret that I'm bearish on this aging bull market, we all know that trying to time a market correction is a futile attempt, smart money would just get long the market until the music stops playing. My dumb money [disposable day trading capital] wants to participate in a market selloff that has not yet occurred.

I woke up at 4 a.m. wondering why I have such a bearish bias despite witnessing a bull market, then I realized my biased began when I was introduced to trading way back in '02. The dot-com bubble was still fresh in my memory, I traded very well through the 2007 subprime/credit swap fiasco, and I was in early on the "great recession" recovery in 2009. This is not the usual daily rant here on TRIN Café, I'm hinting at the few times a year or a decade that can make the difference in long-term trading success or bottom-feeding for a few points/ticks at a time.

The almost should've, could've, would've is littered throughout this blog, I'm determined to be on board when this bull market turns the corner. With that said, I'm risking a total of $416.54 for the summer in the below option positions. The only clear bearish chart is XLE [Enrgy], the other two charts XLK [Tech] and XLF [Financial] are well into bullish territory, I admit I am way out ahead of any bearish signals.



Summer Option Portfolio



Sep 15 '17 55 Put @ 1.28 | as of 6/21/17 XLK 55.64

Sep 29 '17 64 Put @ 2.43 | as of 6/21/17 XLE 64.75

Sep 29 '17 24 Put @ .68 | as of 6/21/17 XLF 24.20





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