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12/15/16

See you in 2017

Are you having  a tough time trading the current volatility? Well, there's space on the sidelines to wait it out until market conditions are conducive to retail trading. Im sitting it out  untill the New Year.
Good trading in 2017!
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12/14/16

Overbought?

The below Santoli article sums up my trading strategy for 2017, a marekt correction is near. I try my best to be a good technical trader, I work hard not to have a bias to which direction the market will trend so my mind can be clear to make the right trade. After looking at years of previous trading results, I clearly have a preference for shorting, my success/win rate is a lot better when markets are selling-off.
The psychological Dow number is 20,000, will it serve as resistance, or will it be broken and become the new support?
What ever happens, I'm looking forward to getting back to a more orderly market... if that ever existed.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/14/santoli-tired-overbought-dow-fails-to-hit-20000-as-fed-hikes-rates.html
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8/30/16

When A Bad Trade Works

Trin Café "a trading for a living blog, inception 2017" was suppose to serve as a easy to read disclaimer of what Trin Café is about, and a reminder to myself that I will not put any capital at risk until 2017.  Well, inception came earlier than expected, I began trading as early as the month of August. 

2017 has been the chosen time frame because I would be able to commit my time from market open to market close. I've said it many times before, to have a chance at day trading successfully, it requires a method that's at least a break even win loss ratio, decent money management principals, and the time to be there in the moment when your method and the market are all aligned.

I rarely post charts on Trin Café anymore because I don't believe charts to be of value, a lot of what it means to trade is to be in the moment, putting your experience and capital at risk will be different for every individual trader. A traders circumstances and risk tolerance is like their own fingerprint, but for what it's worth; I was motivated enough to post this really bad trade that worked.

The below chart is of the YM on August 26th, I was fortunate that this trade worked in my favor. If you remember, August 26th Janet Yellen was speaking. The case can be made that trading on a FOMC day should be avoided, the markets can be very erratic, I'm talking about the kind of violent price swings that knock out the most well placed stops leading a lot of traders to get whipsawed and overtrade... been there done that countless number of times.

However, with access to my mobile trading app, I have had some early trading success. But with success, one of my many trading flaws is ego. I made a few trades that went against me, for a week, I dug a 13% hole into my account. I know very well that drawdowns are apart of trading, but trading on a phone with suspect reception and a shady battery has nothing to do with my method... I will explain that one in another post soon.

With all of that said, I told another trader I would share why I made the trade last Friday, but it was important to share the bigger picture, that day trading is not always easy, technical analysis has merit, but money management and trading psychology is where I intend on focusing  myself and this blog.

Now for the Technical Analysis... (Not that complicated)

I sold 18531 because I saw that price made a lower high, a quick sell with the hope that another lower low would come my way. 

Crazy? Only crazy if I did not immediately place a tight stop at 18549. With each lower low in my favor is what gave me confidence to place my stop from 18549 into a profit stop.

Note: The below chart is from NinjaTrader, my phone app looks nothing like this; another reason I can't trade on my phone any more.


YM Aug 26th 2016


Again, I was fortunate to turn a negative month into a positive month on one trade. Day trading well requires a commitment to consistency.

- Trin



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7/6/16

DIA SPY QQQ Big Picture - 7/6/16


With all the market jitters, it can be hard to see through the fog.

Taking a step back, DIA and SPY technicals indicate bullish sentiment, QQQ appear to be trending sideways.


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7/5/16

DIA Technicals, Entering Dog Days of Summer - 7/5/16

DIA Resistance 180, support 170. 

Hard to make a bullish case for $DIA.

I expect a lot of chop within 180/170 range through the summer.

If your a retail trader who has been profitable so far this year, don't give it all back in the dog days of summer.


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6/29/16

YM 6/29/16


R1 18000
S1  17200
S2  16961

It was last Thursday's Brexit vote, that triggered a 976 pt nose dive, the market has recovered 690 pts. Surprise surprise, we are 286 pts from previous highs.

I try to avoid giving predictions to where price will go next, the mind can fall in love with our own opinions, clouding judgment on what is actually happening.
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6/24/16

Brexit...what's next?

R1 and R2 hold after Britain votes to leave

Traders have a lot to think about over the weekend, buy sell or stay on the sidelines. I for one would not want to be holding on to any weekend positions; too much risk and for a lottery ticket.

UK Exports:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports
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6/23/16

YM Chart Daily 6/22/16


As a  part of my trading preparation, I have maintained a routine of reviewing charts and manually backtesting my method. Part of my routine is looking at a daily chart to get more perspective of where support and resistance levels are at. With that said, less talk more charts.

Analysis... Pros buy support and sell resistance regardless of time frame.

Trade well!


 
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2/19/16

YM 2/19/16: Update



Win or lose, will update results later today after trade is closed.


As promised, an update with results. Almost, should've could've would've is not conducive to long term success. I made a trade I felt good about, it did not work, simple as that. 20/20 hindsight analysis means very little. If the trade "would've" worked, I would only be patting myself on the back as I marveled in my technical analysis. On to the next trade, enjoy the weekend!

- 389pts
-$1945




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2/18/16

YM Big Picture 2/18/16

Trading View Chart

I only want to be aware of where price has been in preparation to trade well when the market is ready to move. In the business of trading for a living, we have to avoid becoming emotionally attached to a prediction.

[contact]
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YM 2/18/16


Points -134/-$670
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2/17/16

YM 2/17/16




A profitable trade on a FOMC day, will take profit and call it good enough for the day.

Lot 3
Long 16300
Profit Stop 16310
Target 16356
Closed 16350
150pts




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8/20/15

DJIA Selling Off?

DJIA

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8/10/15

Does Technical Trading Really Work? Technical Analysis 101 By Jonas Elmerraji

"Is technical analysis the Holy Grail for investors? Or is it just tea leaf reading?"
It shouldn't come as a surprise that talking about investing strategies brings up strong emotions among their practitioners. After all, people's money is on the line. But few topics draw the same polar degrees of ire and praise that technical analysis does. The thing is, many of the biggest TA critics don't really understand how technicians actually use their toolbox to make money in the markets. Continue to article
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1/28/15

Just Charts (ES/YM) 28 Jan 2015

Below EMA 26
See related post WHEN IS IT TIME TO PANIC AND TAKE COVER?
DM Indicator
EMA 26
DM Indicator

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1/20/15

Bullish Engulfing Pattern?

Bull or Bear?

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1/9/13

DIA 1/9/13

DIA Daily Bars
Previous post about DIA
Nov 19, 2012

In my last post, Blood on The Streets, I was talking about how I was getting crushed on a call option that does not expire until JAN'14. As I am not day trading, I am working on longer term strategies by using options. The JAN'14 is going to be my biggest position by far, I plan on using other options with a much closer expiration date to hedge as needed. If price can get back above 130, this position will be looking a lot smarter then it does now.
Nov 18, 2012

I have not been very active with my day trading, currently I have a few option positions, my biggest position is a DIA 130 CALL @ 9.64 with expiration dates of Jan 2014. Needless to say I am getting crushed with the current ...

6/19/17 [I never finished this post, no clue to why, maybe because I was getting "crushed"?]
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