TRIN Café: Blog

4/25/18

Day Trading Trading Through The Rust

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Tried to short YM 23827 hoping for the selloff to continue, then I began suffering from FOMO again and tried going long a few times. I made back some of my loss with my last and final trade that captured 49 points. I will call today's trading a small victory, despite being down 1,177 on the YM, I was able to manage my last trade and stop trading when the market appeared to be stuck in range/chop territory. YM being under 24k I believe to be significant, hope to be in the zone when/if the market sells off further, I'll be back at it on Thursday.

The Week Ahead

Posted 23 April, S&P 500: Dynamic chart continues to update price

I expect the market to be choppy this week, a lot of eyes and money will be waiting for Apple Financial Results - Q2 2018 May 1, 2018 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET

Patient Bear On Sidelines

April 18, 2018

Pundits getting giddy on the market. I'm keeping my eye on ES 28,000 as possible resistance.

As long as companies are making money, does that equate to a rising market?

20/20 hindsight is fascinating, in the next bear market, what will be the smoking gun?

As I type this, I know I am still biased to the downside and have little interest in risking capital to the upside.

I am still a bear on the sidelines, with the exception of

WATT Aug 20 strike Call Option.

ES Daily

Retail Trading Is Not Dead...Yet!

Been a while.

I've gone silent the past few weeks, I have given myself time to think about the past 12-14 months of my trading experience. The would've, could've... has become the ongoing mantra for Trin Café much like most traders who's performance did not match their expectations. My bias to a market selloff (bear market) left me on the sidelines as I watched the market rise for much of 2017. When I did trade, it was against the overall bullish trend... I continued walking head first into bear traps.

Stubborn or Bad timing?

Back in February, I posted the below chart I intended on updating on a weekly basis, a car crash and personal family matters shifted my priorities. The size I was trading with at the beginning of 2017 was 3-6 times the size I should have been trading with, 20/20 hindsight, I felt like I was going for the market's jugular (FOMO). Politics aside, I expected the volatility to dramatical increase the day after Trump was elected, I was trading as if I wanted to be the first trader to identify the housing bubble back in 2008. I know I have to take a step back mentally and physically; a complete reset for how, what, when and why I put a trade on.

20/20

Trading View, I'm still bearish.

Many Many Many Thanks!

Not my usual kind post here on Trin Café, but this seems like the best place for me to share some of my reflection on what's really important in life despite the market turmoil or poor trading performance (2017). On Friday, February 1st I went for a ride in my weekend driver, a 2006 Corvette Z06, for those who are not familiar with Corvettes or sports cars, the 2006 Z06 model is the poor man's exotic performance car with 505hp, 11 seconds in the quarter mile, and it can pull 1.2g.

With all that said, I was going into a curve at maybe 40 miles per hour, not at all an extreme speed, especially for this car, as I attempt to brake before entering the curve, I quickly realize nothing was happening. In fractions of a second, I knew trying to turn would make the situation much worse. If you ever wonder what you would do if your brakes go out, see the youtube video here, I chose to hold on went straight ahead off the road and hit a gate/pole. Thankfully the pole gave way enough to slow me down, I went up and over the pole into a spin where the car came to a stop.

I was shaken up but ok (back a bit sore), I got out the car to assess the damage and gather my senses feeling pretty bad about the damage to the front end of the car and the scratches the barbed wire fenced caused. Then Murphy's law kicked into high gear, I noticed a small flame coming from under the car that quickly grew into a full-on blaze. In just a matter of seconds, my car was engulfed in flames. After calling 911, it took 5 minutes for the fire department to arrive, another 30 minutes for them to completely put out the fire.

I have spent the past few days sulking. and trying to recall what had happen, what could I have done differently, then I began to realize how fortunate I am to have walked away from a horrific looking accident, a number of things could have gone wrong, such as my seat belt could have jammed trapping me in the car, the car could have hit a solid object like a tree knocking me unconscious; my brakes could have failed while trying to stop at a busy intersection putting other people in jeopardy, the list goes on and on.

An accident like this help put things into perspective for me, if you are religious in nature or not, being grateful for your health and well being is an important life skill that can be easily lost in a culture where we keep score by how much money is made or lost. Truth be told, I feel my priorities have been identified for a long time now, "quality time" spent with family and friends, travel and service to others. Knowing my priorities are easy to think and write about, but to live them every day as a life mission statement will be my life's purpose. In future posts here on Trin Café, I will elaborate on these priorities, until then friends, please be grateful for your health, the health of your friends and family.

Take care!

Panic Button

YM Daily

The chart above is what I have been using to try to stay aware of what the market is doing from a macro perspective. The world knows that the market has fallen fiercely, does that mean it's time to put on your bear suit? To be a buyer or a seller, it all depends on your time frame and strategy. I'm attempting to slow trade this market and not be freaked out by the drama. Who would be surprised "if" the market rebounds back into its previous bullish channel in the next few days?

If I stay true to what the technicals are saying, this is still a bull market... on a daily chart. Pros buy support so the hedge funds and HFT will be looking to buy on a discount leaving the rest out of the party still shell-shocked. We all have our breaking point where we are ready to tap out and say "No Mas". My pain button is just below YM 24785, I expect we all will learn where this market will go this week.

Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien

Edith Piaf, Songwriter, Singer(1915–1963)

Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien
[No, I do not regret anything]

Have you ever daydreamed about what you would do differently if you had your own time machine? If you ever had the slightest feeling of regret, or the traders should've could've would've syndrome, you probably would not have minded having the 20/20 foresight on hand when deciding to make that blunder of a trade. It has been a while since I taken the time to write a post of any real substance on Trin Café, my excuse boils down to a lack of motivation.

My long-term goal has been to trade for a living for the lifestyle I want for myself and my family... as I mentioned here on the blog, my 2017 bearish bias in this balls-out bull market wrecked havoc on my account. Trading setups I have seen hundreds of times before resulted in the trade going sideways ending in me getting stopped out, or worse, overtrading looking to break even then looking to make a profit and so on down the rabbit hole.

Maybe 2017 was the best thing to happen on many different levels. The title of Trader, or Day Trader implies I am always in action in the market, at a minimum a few times a week. The old adage that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent still holds true regardless of how big your account is. 2018 is a positive year for me so far, mainly on a few long option positions that worked out well... duh. The market is still going nuts on the buy it upside, someone reading this might be saying all you have to do is #BTFD right?!

How My Bear Bias Began.

I've been trading, making and losing real money since 2002, if you recall, the market was still falling from the dot-com bubble and the 9-11 terrorist attacks. The best trades that were available were shorts. See a pattern of lower highs and lower lows and it was like a dog whistle on what to do next. My best trading year was in 2008, the market selloff was dramatic.When fear grips the market, panic selling is a bears best friend... did I mention that I have a bias to sell than buy? The idea of buying a dip in 2002 or 2008 was crazy talk!

Now, the way forward is not all that complicated, it's to take advantage of the overall market as we all know we should be doing. Fear of losing and missing out is what keeps us from doing what is in our best interest. My fear is being long and then getting mauled by a sudden bear attack. In the event of a bearish market, I plan to be armed with my day trading and options trading experience.

The Big Picture

My goal going forward is to keep investing/trading simple with my mind focused on long-term rather than short-term gain. I will continue using options to participate in the market for the five following reasons.

Options can be bought at a fraction of the underline stock.
Losses can be secured at a fixed figure.
Profit can grow exponentially, 50% 100% %300...
Time is not spent laser focused day trading.
I can think of better things to do with my time than be in front of a screen.

What will you say to your self 10-20 years from now?

Trin Café's Future

I began this blog to share my excitement and ideas about retail trading with other traders. Now I do most of my retail trading chatter on Twitter. Who knows, I may move to a Caribbean island and Trin Cafè becomes a blog about being an "expat island hopping rum drinking lover of life"?

Take Care!

Jesse L. Livermore said it best!

I learned that I have a bearish biased about the market regardless of how far it has continued to rise month after month. Day trading has its place for me inside my toolbox, What was once selloffs a long time ago are not "opportunities" or excuses to buy the market back up with a vengeance. Mentally, it's easier for me to be long a Call option and let it simmer for a week or two, hopefully closing it out for a decent profit. Maybe in 2018 I will have the opportunity to put my bear hat on and go to work with some day trading, until then, I will get in line and look for opportunities to #BTFD with options.

“ It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. ”
- Jesse L. Livermore

Make 2018 Your Best Year! [Update]

Happy New Year!

So it's another year in the bag, truth be told, this year had its ups... then mostly down for my trading account. A quick update on where I am at in life and with this blog, I am no longer day trading on a daily or weekly basis. A severe trading account drawdown has a way of helping a person reevaluate their trading strategy.

I'm not completely done with trading, quite the opposite, I have maintained and closed option positions throughout 2017 and will continue to do the same in 2018. I'm still getting over my jetlag from my holiday vacation to Martinique. When I'm rested, I intend on taking some time to map out how I will manage my trading account as well as this blog Trin Café.

I've found that twitter accomplishes my desire to share my trading thoughts and rants and it's the fastest way to interact with other traders, the blog is feeling dated and time-consuming to update and maintain... and it's not free. I will give myself a few weeks to make my plan for the rest of the year on the way forward, I hope this to be the best year for all of us personally and professionally.

[Update]

A summary of my options trading/house cleaning activity below. I'm still that deer awed by the headlights of this bull market. As I look DIA chart on my 47" screen, I am looking at the technicals on a weekly chart and the bullishness is hard for me to comprehend!

DIA weekly chart, BTFD was the winning mantra for 2017.

Take care!

Options Play 11/14/17

A quick update from last week. I'm Happy with my GE option, it's the only one that is working as well as I hoped. The drags on my P&L are PM, GM, and T. VLRS is a low vol option, still trying to close it for a small profit... any takers?

VLRS Dec15'17 10 PUT | BOT @ .46 | P&L 7 | Closed @.55, RLZD P&L 1

PM Dec22'17 102 PUT | BOT @ 2.72 X 2 | P&L 60| RLZD P&L -116

T Mar16'18 32 PUT | BOT @ 1.33 | P&L 10 | RLZD P&L -37

GE Mar16'18 21 PUT | BOT @ 1.72 | P&L 104 | RLZD P&L 181

GM Mar16'18 42 PUT | BOT @ 2.60 | P&L 25 | RLZD P&L -29

Options Portfolio: as of 11/6/17

I've been bearish on this market since November of last year, clearly proven wrong on my timing. Now I am attempting to be more selective with what and when I'm bearish. I will update this "Options Portfolio" post as positions change from week to week.

VLRS Dec15'17 10 PUT | BOT @ .46 | P&L -3 | RLZD P&L --

PM Dec22'17 102 PUT | BOT @ 2.72 X 2 | P&L 67 | RLZD P&L --

T Mar16'18 32 PUT | BOT @ 1.33 | P&L -5 | RLZD P&L --

GE Mar16'18 21 PUT | BOT @ 1.72 | P&L -1 | RLZD P&L --

GM Mar16'18 42 PUT | BOT @ 2.60 | P&L 15 | RLZD P&L --

I Smell Smoke! Update

Going after smokes now, still anticipating some market slow down, I've been locked in on the broader market (DIA, QQQ, SPY) without much success. I will just have to find the weak stocks on my own.

Symbol: PM | DEC22'17 102 PUT | Cost 2.72 x 2

Symbol: GM | Mar16'18 | 42 PUT | Cost 2.60

Another Line In The Sand

I've been a lot less active blogging about my trading for the usual reasons most trading bloggers slow down or completely stop blogging. Day trading this past year for me has been dismal. My (wrong) bias to the market being overbought has given me good reason to pause and reassess my trading style and goals. My trading has often felt like I have been just drawing lines in the sand and waiting to see what will happen next.

My bias has not changed... they say a broken clock is right twice a day (right?), I'm doing my best to be patient with this market to be able to have the capital available to leverage a market correction. With all that said, I have a DIA 235 Put with an expiration date of March 2018.

MARGIN CALL

If you never had a margin call before, good for you! I will tell you from past and current experience, it does not get any more humbling than that. Back on the grind of getting my "dumb money" trading account back to a respectable level.

Are We Bearish Yet?

I have no clue if this is the beginning of the end... no pun intended, but right now my options positions are as bearish as they can get... I can't force myself to buy into a bullish position in anticipation of a recovery.

In other news, I'm back from vacation.

Options Portfolio

I'm still mentally on vacation, hence this short post. Day trading conditions have been choppy the entire summer, I'm going to sit back and see how much this bull market has left.

Tech Technical Analysis

QQQ

Your basic technical analysis (TA) is suppose to help a trader identify a trend in the market, or the beginning of a new trend. We all know the money is made in beginning of the trend and managing to get out before it's over, and yes, it's always easier said than done. The chart above is via the website finviz.com, the same trend lines most traders are concerned with are marked automatically with out any effort on my part. For those who know TA works, the above chart is worth paying attention to.

For the experienced TA geeks out there, I argue that QQQ has significantly broken it's upward trend line. We all know that perma bulls and algos may determine this to be the perfect buying opportunity, still too early to tell if we are watching the beginning of a correction in tech, but it is fun to watch.

"My XLK option is having its best day so far, "On Watch", I'm looking forward to seeing how the bulls respond to what ever CNBC is being most dramatic about in the month of July."

When Will The Music Stop On The Bull Market?

Picking up from yesterday's post, every institution and retail trader alike are searching for where the next bubble will pop. Will the bubble be in tech, or in financial, maybe it will be in real-estate?
I often make pundit like claims that are all intended to be satire in nature, pundits get paid for sharing their opinions, see CNBC. At TRIN Café my opinions are from just another retail trader who only makes a profit when I'm right about market direction; when I am wrong I do not hide from my previous statements, I try to adjust to current market conditions as fast as reasonably possible.

I think I was putting down some sort of disclaimer?

My "Bubble Watch List" XLE, XLF, and XLK are ETF's that cover energy, financial and technology, including as of today is Vanguard's (VNQ) REIT (real estate investment trusts) ETF. To make it easier on myself and hopefully on the readers of this blog, the watchlist will get its own page making it easier to comment on through the summer.

For the chart geek in me, see below chart, VNQ may be the first clue to when this bull market is running out of steam?

VNQ has formed a 3 top, in the next week we will find out how the market reacts to price/resistance.

Dumb Money Is Bearish This Summer!

It's not a secret that I'm bearish on this aging bull market, we all know that trying to time a market correction is a futile attempt, smart money would just get long the market until the music stops playing. My dumb money [disposable day trading capital] wants to participate in a market selloff that has not yet occurred.

I woke up at 4 a.m. wondering why I have such a bearish bias despite witnessing a bull market, then I realized my biased began when I was introduced to trading way back in '02. The dot-com bubble was still fresh in my memory, I traded very well through the 2007 subprime/credit swap fiasco, and I was in early on the "great recession" recovery in 2009. This is not the usual daily rant here on TRIN Café, I'm hinting at the few times a year or a decade that can make the difference in long-term trading success or bottom-feeding for a few points/ticks at a time.

The almost should've, could've, would've is littered throughout this blog, I'm determined to be on board when this bull market turns the corner. With that said, I'm risking a total of $416.54 for the summer in the below option positions. The only clear bearish chart is XLE [Enrgy], the other two charts XLK [Tech] and XLF [Financial] are well into bullish territory, I admit I am way out ahead of any bearish signals.

Summer Option Portfolio

Sep 15 '17 55 Put @ 1.28 | as of 6/21/17 XLK 55.64

Sep 29 '17 64 Put @ 2.43 | as of 6/21/17 XLE 64.75

Sep 29 '17 24 Put @ .68 | as of 6/21/17 XLF 24.20

Summer Time Options Trading

As quickly as I posted about being long DIA Sep 29th'17 215 Call just yesterday, I became nervous and took my profit. Now may be the time to stick it out and ride this market higher, but the day trader in me is fearful of a dramatic selloff and my option play was with some size, I didn't have the testicular fortitude to hold on to the position for more than a week.

I bought @ 3.05 and closed the position at 4.20, a 20% profit is better than a 100% loss. As I type this, DIA Sep 29th'17 215 Call is @ 4.76. The DIA option increased in value as the YM is down -0.07%, boggles my mind as to why that would be? My love-hate relationship with trading options will continue through the summer.

DIA 6/20/17

Moving on to my travel plans, I will not bring my laptop with me [over seas], it would be an excuse to look at a chart to day-trade. As I said before, I'm on a day trading vacation. I will have my phone readily available to manage any new option positions I open up. As for this blog, whenever I stumble across a wifi connection, I will be updating TRIN Café with new updates. My option watch list is anchored by SPY, QQQ, and DIA, I will be including CL and VNQ [Vangaurd REIT Index Fund] options into the mix, to cover all the bases of the overall economy. If a big move is going to happen, you will see it happen in one or a few of the below charts.

Futures quotes delayed 20 minutes.
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6/20/17 SPY @ 243.40

6/20/17 QQQ @ 139.64

6/20/17 DIA @ 214.63

6/20/17 CL @ 43.48

6/20/17 VNQ @ 84.40

Pages

4/25/18

4/23/18

4/18/18

4/11/18

Been a while.

Stubborn or Bad timing?

2/7/18

2/5/18

1/29/18

Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien[No, I do not regret anything]

How My Bear Bias Began.

The Big Picture

Trin Café's Future

1/25/18

1/9/18

11/14/17

11/6/17

11/3/17

10/30/17

10/20/17

9/5/17

8/23/17

6/29/17

6/22/17

6/21/17

Summer Option Portfolio

6/20/17

Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien
[No, I do not regret anything]