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1/30/19

Ten Year Plan (2030)

Learn to trade your own money, make your own hours, be your own boss, live the dream lifestyle you deserve!
Making money in the market
 is as easy as
 1-2-3


  Don't worry, I am not selling trading get rich schemes, I think all new traders secretly dream of being rich. I can admit after my first few winning trades, I visioned my winnings to increase exponentially! I still (embarrassing) have old excel files predicting the growth of my trading account, in 2019 my trading account was projected to be nearing a cool million by now... yeah I thought/hoped that!

If I could talk to the rookie trader that I once was a long time ago,  I would give myself two pieces of advice to research, study and practice fanatically.

1. The 80/20 Rule

The average bull market lasts 8-10 years, with this knowledge/fact, 80% of trading capital is "invested" into various ETF's and or longterm options. This would be the slow steady growth account that is designed to mirror the market.

The remaining 20% of trading capital is used for the aggressive growth trading, this is the speculative (spec) account that is used to buy and sell technically traded charts. 

2. Risk Management

Separate the slow growth account from the aggressive spec account. Rules need to be put into place on how and when capital is moved from accounts and how profits are consistently taken.
You are your worse enemy! I would warn myself to trade with the next 10 years in mind, not with the emotional swings of the daily market.

[I heard an interesting podcast about "How Buffet won a $1,000,000 bet",  but I can't remember where?? click here to read an article about it.
Another good read: Bull Markets Last Five Times Longer Than Bear Markets by Robert Lenzner]


My Retail Trading Ten Year Plan (2030) will be a combination of 80/20. Many of you know I have traded options for many years, I will be developing my own portfolio of ETF's that are intended to track the market performance. And yes, I will try and hedge with 20% of my remaining trading capital. Going forward, how I post on Trin Café will probably somehow reflect this trading strategy and lifestyle.

It's been a while since I posted here on Trin Café, I must say I am surprised that this site still receives as much internet traffic as it does considering how neglected the site has been, not to mention the horrible spelling and egregious grammatical errors. With that said, thanks for checking in on the site, truly a labor of habit.

Take care and trade well!
- Trin
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6/12/17

Trading With The Sharks Today

Swim with sharks for a living.
This week I am actively participating in these shark infested markets because I have the feeling the market will see some significant moves, this theory is based on tech selling off on Friday. Took more trades than usual, but I felt good about each and every trade, I kept my stops small, hence the 66.67% 61.54% win percentage. ZC and CL were my two biggest losers today, no worries, I will be ready for what comes my way this week.
ZC -132 today
HE  +61 despite IB and NT data, not in sync

HE looks a lot different on IB

Better Trading Ahead!



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6/6/17

Day Trading Vacation Starts Today!

A better title would be a vacation from day trading, but that sounds kind of negative. The market is sixty seconds from opening, I am prepared to take a trade if my criteria are met, I might be more ready to do nothing and start my summer break early? Trading can be mentally tiring, especially if you are trading poorly (long pause) Wow, I was contemplating getting long ZC, as traders do, I even tweeted about it here lol. No regrets, no would’ve should’ve could’ve, I’m ready to take a break.


technical is analysis is adequate enough to be used to spot where not to trade.


With each trade, I feel I am learning something new about myself or the market, for example, I correctly identified the area of congestion in ZC, I feel good that I can hang my hat on the fact that my technical is analysis is adequate enough to be used to spot where not to trade... I will say that again because I think it's worth repeating, technical is analysis is adequate enough to be used to spot where not to trade.

Well, I'm in no mood to chase the market for a trade, and I know myself after all these years of trading, if I sit here long enough, I will force a trade that I would regret. I hope the best for all the traders who have the desire, drive, and humility to attempt to trade their own money. Enjoy the charts below where I highlighted the area of congestion, also referred to as chop.

Chop
Momentum

Momentum
Serious momentum out of congestion area


"Better Trading ahead!"








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6/5/17

Day Trading For A Profit

I am done for the day, I have reached the limits of my zone, (respect to Mark Douglas), I entered the market early with ZN, attempted to short @126'135, I cut my losses and turned my attention to CL, shorted 47.08, I closed the first entry for a few points, covered my commission cost, I then went long with the thought CL was trying to retrace its way back up, my stop was razor thin, I locked in a profit with every significant move with the intention of not letting this trade get away from me in the chop. As I type this, price is all over the place  hunting stops, maybe CL will sell off, maybe it will climb higher?... all I know for sure is this mutha*** will not get me to trade again today,
6/5/17
Working on cutting my losses quicker.
Avoided the chop, took what the market was giving me.

"Better Trading Ahead!"


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6/1/17

I can name a dozen different things better than staring at charts




Back at it again in the office for a few trades after the Memorial Day break. I took one trade more than I wanted to, fat finger a short in CL, I closed it quickly for a breakeven trade, ironically, it continued moving down, No regrets, I'm working on trading only the morning session, if the position is working past lunch, I will stick with it until a profit stop is hit.
I can name a dozen different things better than staring at charts
  1. Cutting the grass
  2. Walking the dog
  3. Lunch
  4. Working out
  5. Preparing a good dinner
  6. Cleaning the car
  7. Clean my office
  8. Learning how to be more efficient in Ninja Trader
  9. Search Twitter to see how other retail traders are doing
  10. Pay a visit to my favorite blogs
  11. Plan a European vacation... more on that in another post
  12. Call a friend or family member

"Better Trading Ahead!"
Great works are performed not by strength but by perseverance. - Samuel Johnson
Read more at: brainyquote.com


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5/30/17

Becoming A Better Trader Can Make You A Better Person

In the world of trading, it's natural for a trader to have a healthy amount of confidence, in some cases, an over inflated ego, we are only human. It's understood by most people that an ego can become out of control to where it hinders our decision-making ability while simultaneous preventing us from reaching our full potential.

Susan Krauss Whitbourne Ph.D. wrote
an interesting post titled It’s a Fine Line Between Narcissism and Egocentrism that was posted on website Psychology Today

She listed five pointers of knowing the dangers and corrective actions.

1. Make an honest assessment of your egocentric behaviors.

2. Check out how other people feel.

3. Build up your inner sense of self.

4. Squelch your imaginary audience.

5. Practice counter-egocentrism.

You can read the full article here.

 "Deficiency motivation doesn't work. It will lead to a life-long pursuit of try to fix me. Learn to appreciate what you have and where and who you are"
- Wayne Dyer


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5/23/17

Enjoy The Memorial Day Holiday

Remembering the people who died while serving in the Armed Forces, thank you for your service.

Leisure Time

I would guess that most people who attempt to day trade for a living do so with the idea of being able to generate enough income for a lifestyle of enjoying time with friends and family and some routine leisure time. No offense to the traders who stay locked away in their dungeon, or office sweating in their lucky t-shirt while the market refuses to bend to their will. I’ve been that guy, so I don't feel bad about the characterization. FYI, I do not have a lucky shirt, but my comfortable office space can become a dungeon, feeling trapped, unable to walk away from a congested market looking to force a trade.

Today's watchlist was mostly sideways except for corn futures (ZC) and the ten-year note futures (ZN). As I type this, I was able to move my ZC position into a profit stop. This will be a short post, I have a scheduled haircut today in preparation for Memorial Day Weekend, we will be spending some quality time with family and friends.  After the haircut, I need to refill the propane tank to have the grill ready for this weekend… any suggestions of what to put on the grill? lol

This is my first time ever trading ZC, trade is still working, I while be monitoring my profit stop throughout the day on the mobile… I have a target of 369.50, depending on what price and the chart are doing, I will adjust the position to lock in more profit.

Trading Results
[Update, done for the day]

Instrument: ZC 07-17
Lot Size: 2
Total # of trades: 1
Percent Profitable: 100%
Avg. Winning Trade: $14
Avg. Losing Trade: $0
# of winning trades: 1
# of losing trades: 0
# of even trades: 0
P&L Total: $ +14

ZC 5/23/17, check back later to see how this trade ends.
ZC 5/23/17 Traded retraced and hit my profit stop.
ZC continued to selloff

Trade Conclusion Update

As soon as I posted, I was stopped out for a small profit. Felt good about my execution, I was intending on holding the position through lunch. That is the end of my trading week, hope you all have much trading success.

“Better Trading Ahead!”
If you want to have a good life, you should focus on your family, on your business, on your dog, on your fun, and you’ll have a good life....Adam Carolla
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5/22/17

Today Was A Good Trading Day

Avoid The Chop

Starts In The Mind

I really had better than a good day, and I didn't make any trades. I have been that guy so many times before where I would find myself in a trade I wish I could take back. Because I pride myself on not being a quitter, just one bad trade is never enough (sarcasm). Today I woke up with a confidence I have not had a for a while; I'm trusting in my consistent technical analysis and mental approach to my trading. My routine mentioned in another post includes a little journal writing before getting started with my day, I review my method, prepare my charts… and squeeze a bit of office fitness into the day. I admit the office fitness has been lacking, need to get back at it.

Nothing To Trade

It was a sideways day for the majority of my watchlists, it was clear to me early that making a trade was not going to be in the cards for me. Price traded in a tight range, the same kind of range I have found myself trying to justify for so many years. I claim to be a trend trader, if you look hard enough, you can find a trend in anything. For my method and trading time frame, I have to safeguard against congested market conditions.

Mental Physical Social Emotional Spiritual 

Instead of sweating it out in a choppy market, I went to lunch with some old colleagues. I'm sure I appreciated my lunchtime Margarita more than anybody else in the restaurant. The focus I would have spent on the market was available for a social interaction, a welcomed change of scenery from the solitude of the office. I can admit that I am a self-help nerd, my bookshelf consists of how to trade and understand financial markets, geopolitical conflicts, to how to live a better life. One of my good reads that left a lasting impression on me was from Stephen Covey's The 7 Habits Of Highly Effective People, investing in the four dimensions of self (sharpening the saw). The graphic below is a summary of the four dimensions, mental, physical, social-emotional and spiritual and a great video that summarizes all 7 habits.

Sharpen the saw
Sharpen the saw.





Trading Results 5/22/17_________________________________________________________________________________

Instrument: Avoided the $#@! chop.
Total # of trades: 0
Percent Profitable: 0%
Avg. Winning Trade: $0
Avg. Losing Trade: $0
# of winning trades: 0
# of losing trades: 0
# of even trades: 0
P&L Total: $0

YM 5/22/17 Congested price range.
CL 5/22/17 Congested price range.
“Better Trading Ahead!”

"When you are discontent, you always want more, more, more. Your desire can never be satisfied. But when you practice contentment, you can say to yourself, 'Oh yes - I already have everything that I really need.

- Dalai Lama"
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5/19/17

Committed To Better Day Trading Win Or Lose


Today was a good day! As I typed this, my position was down 10pts, my execution was as planned. I'm claiming today as a good day win or lose because I am very confident that I will be executing my trading plan/method as intended (always room for improvement). I will not and can not blame the market if the CL trade does not work, or anyone else, I accept the fact that the best trades that meet all the criteria will not be profitable 100% of the time, or even 50% depending on the market conditions.

An excerpt from my introspective journaling
"Take pride in the execution.
Take pride in my resolve.
My self-worth and value are not based on if this trade works or fails.
Committed to zero whipsaw trades
."
Iran Iranian elections are taking place today, could this be impacting the market today, maybe today was a day better not traded? If the trade works, would I still have all these same questions or would I just sit on my high horse and marvel at my technical analysis skills? 


Notice all the words of negativity, it takes a resilient effort to think and speak from a positive and factual frame of reference when facing adversity.

Doubt:
maybe today was a day better not traded because of the Iranian elections?

Facts:
Trade was based on my trading method that governs my entry, ATM strategy automatically executes predetermined stop loss, time frames, and area of congestion identified before trade execution. My decision to trade wasn't based on Iranian elections. I reviewed the economic calendar for potentially market-moving news.
_________________________________________________________________________________

Better Trading Ahead!
During and after each trade I am taking notes and jotting down ideas about how I can improve my trading, rather it be in my trade preparation, or in how I manage my screens and trade executions.

Benjamin Mays"The tragedy of life is often not in our failure, but rather in our complacency; not in our doing too much, but rather in our doing too little; not in our living above our ability, but rather in our living below our capacities."
- Benjamin Mays





Instrument: CL Jul'17Lot Size: 1

Total # of trades: 1
Percent Profitable: 0%
Avg. Winning Trade: $0
Avg. Losing Trade: $159
# of winning trades: 0
# of losing trades: 1
# of even trades: 0
P&L Total: -$159

CL 5/19/17

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5/18/17

Consistent Trading Success Is Not By Accident

Consistent Trading Success Is Not By Accident

Back On The Wagon For Now...

For the traders who are serious about making enough money to consider trading for a living, luck, and chance is not a strategy for long-term trading success. Phrases such as a trader's edge, money management, and my personal favorite consistency can be read in most every how to guide to trading your own money to financial freedom. These words handed down from old trading wisdom can become so overused, a trader can easily become numb to their meaning and purpose.

D.r. Alexander Elder, the author of Trading For A Living, titled a chapter in his book "Trading Lessons From AA". In this chapter, he provides an interesting analogy to how a member of Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) can stay sober for a few days, and then inevitably fall off the wagon into drunken behavior once again, same as a trader struggles to adhere to a consistent mindset and trading strategy that would prevent them from repeated trading mistakes... lessons learned that are revisited time and time again.

Consistent profits are what every trader desires to achieve and maintain. To reach this level, it is a day to day process that starts first with conforming to your mental approach to trading. A traders logic and mindset towards trading well can easily become out of tune depending on how well we manage our emotions to the forever changing market conditions. Be fair to yourself by acknowledging your trading strengths and weaknesses, by implementing strategies and safeguards.

Consistent Success


One of Many Safe Guards

My goal with every trade that is trending in my favor is to let profits run as far as possible while steadily moving a protective stop to a more profitable stop, once stopped out for a decent profit, I personally must shut down my trading market data to safeguard my tendency for over-trading. By not having an active chart in front of me, the hope and desire that I can hold on to a position to reach new highs are almost completely eliminated [time better spent elsewhere]. Consistent profits built on a consistent mental approach and trading method is the way forward... win or lose.

Instrument: CL Jun'17Lot Size: 1
Total # of trades: 1
Percent Profitable: 100%
Avg. Winning Trade: $+225.00
Avg. Losing Trade: $0
# of winning trades: 1
# of losing trades: 0
# of even trades: 0
P&L Total: + $225

CL 5/18/17 Secured profit, my trading day is over early.
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5/17/17

Trading (CL) on A EIA Petroleum Status Report Day

Getty Images


I felt really good about today, I didn't have a clue about the direction CL would go after the EIA Petroleum Status Report was released, did not want my bias to cloud my judgment. I was confident in my preparation before the trade as you can see on the chart. I  highlighted the 1st hour of the market open and the area of congestion, made a few quick trades, the volatility took out my tight "profit stop", with each trade, my stop was hit quickly. as I type this, I am tempted to get in again, maybe CL will reach R2?

I'm posting this chart early because I will be shutting down all charts and market data to ensure I am not going to be participating any longer in this market... with fewer oil supplies, it would be easy to conclude that a trader should just be long CL and disregard using a stop because this market is bullish... maybe? However, when maybe enters into my trading strategy, I might as well go to the casino... or play the lottery (think I'll go out today and buy myself a ticket).

Instrument: CL Jun'17
Lot Size: 1
Total # of trades: 3
Percent Profitable: 66.67%
Avg. Winning Trade: $+75.00
Avg. Losing Trade: $-90.00
# of winning trades: 2
# of losing trades: 1
# of even trades: 0
P&L Total: + $46

"Better Trading Ahead!"

CL Chart Analysis
CL 5/17/17 Made a few trades for a small profit, taking pride in the process of execution.

CL Chart Analysis
CL 5/17/17 Notice how far price came down off the previous highs, that would be hard to hold a stop on.
CL 5/17/17 Bullish day turns into a choppy day,


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5/16/17

Are You As Good A Loser As You Are A Winner? - Update


Despite the loss, I felt very good about my patience and entry into the market, I followed my routine to the letter. Just because the trade fit my criteria does not mean it will be successful, cognitively as traders we understand this; to physically be OK with a loss is the challenge some of the best traders struggle with every day. I'm taking pride in the process, putting less emphasis on the outcomes... the theory is, consistently trading well will produce more favorable outcomes i.e. a profit.

Instrument: CL Jun'17
Lot Size: 1
Total # of trades: 2
Percent Profitable: 50%
# of winning trades: 1
# of losing trades: 1
# of even trades: 0
P&L Total: - $166

"Trading for a living is not about how well you win, it's has more to do with how well you lose."
CL 5/16/17

Update:

CL 5/16/17
I felt bad taking the 2nd trade until I realized my error in determining where support and resistance were really at. In the past I have been basing S&R based on the 1st hour of the trading day... maybe a  subconscious fear that I am trying to avoid anything that looks like it would be contested?

My initial entry was at the end of the 1st trend that you can clearly see that broke out near the 1st hour of the trading day. It's easy to get our perspective clouded, I look forward to Wednesday!

FYI: If your trading CL, Opec is meeting this Friday, you can read about it here.






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5/10/17

CL Trading Results 5/10/17


Today's trading was as planned, avoided the chop, was aware of the EIA Natural Gas Report that was released at 10:30 this morning. Now the work of managing my emotions of regret begins, CL continued reaching new highs after I closed my position. What is more important than "leaving money on the table"? Having a consistent frame of thought and action. Allowing negative or positive emotions to cloud our judgment can lead to costly bad habits... i.e. over trading.

The breakeven trade was trader error, I entered the position without using my Ninja Trader ATM stop strategy. I was not going to just wing it and "trust myself" to choose a good stop so I closed it and reentered with my stop set.

"Better Trading Ahead!"

Lot Size: 1
CL: +$221
Total # of trades: 2
Percent Profitable: 50%
# of winning trades: 1
# of losing trades: 0
# of even trades: 1
Total: +$221

CL





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5/9/17

Better Trading Ahead! 5/9/17

"Better Trading Ahead!" is the theme here I am drilling into my psyche.

I did some deep introspective thinking about my trading, the learning never stops. I  learned that I was seeking instant gratification from my trading success, the hard work of being patient and waiting for my trading criteria did not factor into this powerful emotion.

Trading well for a loss is better than trading poorly for a profit... take a minute to think about that.
I do believe that if I trade well consistently, I will be able to compound my wins. But what is more important than how well I win, it's how well I lose...

Losses are a part of trading, we all know that, but do we ever embrace "a good loss". I'm talking about the kind of loss that took place in a trade that met all your criteria, and by chance, price stopped you out for a minimum loss or small gain?

See below chart, for example of a good loss imho. Notice the highlighted area of congestion, I made my trade just outside this area to allow the trade to gain momentum in my favor outside the congestion.  I Sold 46.12, the position was profitable for a short time until my profit stop was hit. CL may retrace back down, but that doesnt matter. I made my trade and now it's time to move on with my day.

"Better Trading Ahead!"

Lot Size: 2
CL: +$21

Total # of trades: 1
Percent Profitable: 100%
# of winning trades: 1
# of losing trades: 0
# of even trades: 0
Total: +$21

CL









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5/8/17

Are We There Yet?

Ever feel like you almost have your trading all figured out? Well, I highlighted the area of chop/congestion in yellow early before the market opened, I contemplated not trading at all today while the price was in the highlighted area. But then I saw CL price move up at 9:25 am giving me a reason to pay attention to a possible trade. 

This headline might have been the cause for CL to jump up again at 10:23 am Oil rebounds in choppy trade as Kuwait signals progress on output cut extension, as quickly as I entered the trade, my stop was hit just as fast. In classic fashion, I don't want to miss the trade, I am in another and another CL trade.

The last trade that I am in is working, for now, CL price is testing previous lows, but it is still in the highlighted area of congestion. I'm using a very generous profit stop, "could've" closed my position to get back more than half of what was lost, but I am choosing to hang on this trade with the "hope" the congestion will break lower for a major selloff.

All of this proves to me that not trading at all today would have been better than grinding along in this market... even if this trade ends my day profitably, this is not my path to long-term trading success.

"Better Trading Ahead!"

Lot Size: 1
CL: -$503

Total # of trades: 7
Percent Profitable: 28.57%
# of winning trades: 2
# of losing trades: 5
# of even trades: 0
Total: - $503



YM

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