3/20/17

3/9/17

The Logic







Trin Café fans, I am as shocked as you, I thought I would be a lot more active blogging about my full-time trading experience. I quickly realized that the stress of real trading and dealing with all my first world problems makes blogging the least of my worries. Maybe that will change in the future? I took the time to blog about a current trade I am currently in right now as I type this out. 

I'm short the YM @ 20830,  I am down about 30 points on a 1 lot contract. I entered into this trade at the open, as the chart shows, it has gone far aginst me as I am not surprised. The logic behind the madness is in my analysis in the above daily chart. If and when the market sells off, it will be below a pivot point which can bee is seen on the 2nd chart above, on the 30 min chart, it's still clearly a bearish pattern, but that could change quickly as the past few weeks have proven.

If trading on a much faster chart, a trader will see both buy and sell signals in this volatile market, hence the small lot size. If the price comes back to my initial entry, I will quickly add to the position hoping for a continuation of the bigger pattern.

Can't time the market, at best, you can trade what's happening and hope the market moves in your favor. If market direction was obvious, we all would be profitable.


Good luck!
Trin







3/7/17

Retail Trader Beware

Do you remember the days of identifying a trend and then riding the momentum  to a decent profit? Current market conditions will easily shake a bull or bear out of a profitable position. Im reminding myself that securing profit is better than looking and holding for the big trade. Traditional  technical analysis will not work in this volatile market. A retail trader has to identity the momentum and take what they can get and get out while they still can. Avoid getting whipsawed, and the massive losing trade... advice I try to adhere to myself.

2/23/17

Party Like It's 1999!?

As a technical trader who prides him self on catching the big trend, I can confess that this bull run has left me in the dust. In 2017, I never expected the DOW to reach far above 20,000, in fact, my entire strategy for 2017 was to be prepared to short the guts out of the market... surprise surprise, pundits are talking DOW 30,000 in the next four years.

This is the kind of market J. Livermore wrote about, being able to be long in the market even when it feels difficult. That is easier said than done, market has away of scaring both bulls and bears out of their positions.

I met a guy who explained to me how well he did in the stock market back in 90's. He casually told me he would just buy, and buy more when the market dipped. Not a bit of technical analysis, he didn't even know what technical analysis meant. Just buy blindly.

Well, we are who we are, I will remain on the sidelines until until until I see a clear bearish trend.

Enjoy the rally! 

2/8/17

Quote

“Don't let yesterday take up too much of today.”

- Will Rodgers