TRIN CAFE



Lifestyle, Mindfulness, Personal Finance, Portfolio Management



4/23/21

FOREX or crypto, gold or silver...?


FOREX or crypto, gold or silver; perhaps futures are your go-to instrument of choice?
Regardless of the symbol being traded, one and done discretionary trades are at the crux of most traders' reasons for lackluster performance. Are you a consistently profitable one-and-done trader? If so, congratulations, you are a part of a select group of the most elite traders. Your trading success is probably closer to a mixed bag dramatic wins and losses if you're still reading. 

This Friday was intended to be a Portfolio Rebalance day, unfortunately, I am still waiting for Interactive Broker's to resolve the Portfolio Builder Rebalance glitch, yes, I am calling it an official glitch. This suppose is not to be another post crap on IB. Their Technical Assistance Center has been in touch with me, below is the update I received. 


"Thank you for sharing the screenshots and for your information the issue has already been forwarded to the corresponding team to investigate on the issue further. Please standby for an update from our end."


Back to the point of one and done discretionary trades, falling into the trap of trying to trade well in the midst of whatever else you have going on in your life is a tall task to ask of anyone, particularly the underfunded retail trader who is juggling family and volatile markets, to be consistently profitable is not a fair expectation to have,  that same expectation becomes a burden. I would recommend trading a portfolio over individual stocks to anyone who has been struggling with their trading, I would also steer would-be traders in the same direction. Save the stress, time, and heartache for the other parts of your life.


Have a great weekend!

Trin on standby
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4/14/21

TSLA

 



Two weeks ago I posted the below discretionary trades, after a lackluster week, this week TSLA has taken off to help end this week with a small profit. 



Photo credit to
Ramón Salinero


Ending the week with a small profit of $120.


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3/31/21

Rebalance

 


Still sticking with Interactive Brokers Portfolio Builder, in an effort to save on commission cost, I have experimented this monthly with rebalancing as opposed to weekly. One month of testing is not much data to make an educated assumption of how well this strategy is working, however, the month of March was lackluster. I will be going back to weekly rebalancing the portfolio as I was doing in 2020.

Account Portfolio

March 31, 2021
Financial Instrument Description Exchange Position Unsettled Position Market Value Market Price Average Price Unrealized P&L Realized P&L Liquidate Last Delta Dollars
AAPL NASDAQ 3   366 122.01 125.44 -10 0 No 366
BABA NYSE 1   227 226.65 241.37 -15 0 No 227
JNJ NYSE 1   164 164.12 161.04 3 0 No 164
JPM NYSE 1   152 152.15 150.71 1 0 No 152
MSFT NASDAQ 1   237 237.06 237.99 -1 0 No 237
V NYSE 1   212 212.17 217.14 -5 0 No 212
WFC NYSE 1   39 38.94 40.067 -1 0 No 39
WMT NYSE 1   136 135.82 133.09 3 0 No 136
AIG NYSE 0   0 46.225 0.00 0 0 No 0
BAC NYSE 0   0 38.65 0.00 0 0 No 0
BK NYSE 0   0 47.25 0.00 0 0 No 0
BSX NYSE 0   0 38.73 0.00 0 0 No 0
CFG NYSE 0   0 44.163 0.00 0 0 No 0
CTVA NYSE 0   0 46.632 0.00 0 0 No 0
NLSN NYSE 0   0 25.159 0.00 0 0 No 0
NWS NASDAQ 0   0 23.46 0.00 0 0 No 0
PEAK NYSE 0   0 31.755 0.00 0 0 No 0
T NYSE 0   0 30.29 0.00 0 0 No 0
UA NYSE 0   0 18.42 0.00 0 0 No 0
VNT NYSE 0   0 30.273 0.00 0 0 No 0
VTRS NASDAQ 0   0 14.00 0.00 0 0 No 0
WRK NYSE 0   0 52.035 0.00 0 0 No 0
AAMC AMEX 0   0 19.195 0.00 0 0 No 0
TSM NYSE 0   0 117.77 0.00 0 0 No 0
BDL AMEX -4   -94 23.623 23.762 1 0 No -94
WVFC NASDAQ -6   -95 15.87 15.005 -5 0 No -95
KEQU NASDAQ -7   -86 12.337 12.493 1 0 No -86
PATI NASDAQ -9   -99 11.048 10.285 -7 0 No -99
CSPI NASDAQ -11   -97 8.817 8.563 -3 0 No -97
MXC AMEX -11   -95 8.618 8.197 -5 0 No -95
UUU AMEX -13   -87 6.718 7.14 5 0 No -87
RMCF NASDAQ -18   -96 5.327 5.187 -3 0 No -96
TRT AMEX -18   -80 4.468 5.246 14 0 No -80


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Purpose




What is your purpose for risking real money in the financial markets? 

Trincafe.com began as a space for me to share my trading experience, the good and the bad. Almost 20 years later, I have learned that I am much more profitable by limiting the number of discretionary trades my technical analysis, fear or greed lured me into. In 2020 I began using Interactive Broker's Portfolio Builder for about 90% of my trades. Within IBKR  stock positions are automatically selected after weekly rebalancing the portfolio based on predefined criteria. My trading strategy was based on a combination of backtesting performance results between two, six, and eight years against the SPY and the level of volatility I am personally comfortable taking on.

There is an infinite amount of free advice floating around on the internet, I hope by posting weekly, this site can prove to be a positive resource that may provide a few tools and insights into how Interactive Brokers Portfolio Builder can help you avoid some of the trading traps such as overtrading that is often associated with discretionary trading. 


Subscribe for weekly Trincafe.com updates.



Image credit: Sebastian Schuppick @supa_95 




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6/12/20

Speculation


I have intentionally discontinued posting my own speculative ideas of what I think the market will do or not. Primarily because there are plenty of other pundits & commentary who are already tweeting and sharing their opinions. I felt I have contributed to the culture that so many retail traders find them selfs trapped inside.


ES


7D
Return: -9.45%
MTD
Return: -4.60%
YTD
Return: 17546.88%
Change: 2,116.30

 I hope you all trade well today!





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6/5/20

Portfolio








The power of managing an active portfolio allows me to continue to participate in the big market gains. Left to my own fears and biases, I would have been able to make a case to be short the current market, apparently "hedge fund guys" were thinking of shorting the market as well? As I type this, the portfolio is up +2%, I am convinced of the merits of less discretionary trading within a diversified portfolio.

7D
Return: 6.99%
MTD
Return: 6.66%
YTD
Change: 2,752.28
Return: 175.53% I hope you all trade well today!


- TRIN
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6/1/20

5/29/20


7D 
7.26% 
MTD
5.02% 
YTD
2,078.11
158.05% 
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5/4/20

MIND THE VIX


If we are using SPY as our view of the overall market, it has to be put into context with what the VIX is doing. The VIX is up +3%, traders are taking a cautious start to the week, the VIX is still trending downwards. Without any real conviction in either direction, I will be flat for today until I see a better opportunity to participate.

May 4th, 2020, SPY S1 280 R1 295
With a high VIX/volatility, it makes finding cheap options to trade damn near impossible, not to mention a lot more risk to capital. It's a clear sign to me not to force any trades for the sake of being in a trade. It's 1120am in NYC, in today's choppy market conditions, I am content to call this day an early wrap. I will be back in the morning looking for an opportunity to trade.


VIX May 4th, 2020

"Be nimble, this market is primed to move big in either direction."


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3/23/20

Speculation

Speculation | March 23 - 27, 2020

DJIA will stay above 18k.

Corona cases increase significantly in the state of Florida. 

(Update: CDC.gov stats) Coronavirus cases by state.

Congress approves legislation to help the economy.


S&P 500 surges to end the week above 2300.






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1/21/20

Bull Market?


Have you done well through this bull market, if not, are you considering getting long to participate?


Dow performance 2019 was above 18%... will 2020 be a continuation of the bull market?
Retail traders who have done well in 2019, were able to stomach numerous pullbacks that scared a lot of other bullish positions to cut their losses while trapping bearish traders attempting to short the market. Those who did not do so well... If your performance was subpar, you probably either over traded or you lost the majority of your trades trying to short the market. In most cases, it's a combination of the two.

"No trader has ever wished they made more trades after a poor trading year. In a bull market, being long and not getting in the way of profits is the real labor of trading."


SPY 331.51

Predictions are free. I believe a market pullback is near, however, I am a broken clock stuck on bearish.

To be bearish this market is akin to staring down a bull, pun intended.

SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust daily Stock Chart





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